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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Fulham

T U S T U

1–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fulham Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,3

3,5

Scored

0,5

2,7

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 46%

39%

52%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

55%

48%

Both score Ø 57%

58%

55%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,18 xG 0,93

39% Possession 61%

13 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 5

7 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fulham 12. · Aston Villa 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	33	21	7	5	+37	+25.8	70
2	Arsenal	33	21	7	5	+37	+31.8	70
3	Man United	33	16	10	7	+13	+12.2	58
4	Aston Villa	33	17	7	9	+6	-5.2	58
5	Liverpool	33	16	7	10	+11	+14.7	55
6	Brighton	34	13	11	10	+9	+7.3	50
7	Bournemouth	34	11	16	7	+0	+4.6	49
8	Chelsea	34	13	9	12	+8	+15.8	48
9	Brentford	33	13	9	11	+4	+8.9	48
10	Everton	33	13	8	12	+1	-9.8	47
11	Sunderland	34	12	10	12	-9	-15.9	46
12	Fulham	33	13	6	14	-3	-4.6	45
13	Crystal Palace	32	11	10	11	-1	+7.9	43
14	Newcastle	33	12	6	15	-3	+4.0	42
15	Leeds	34	9	13	12	-7	+1.1	40
16	Nott'm Forest	34	10	9	15	-4	-8.6	39
17	West Ham	33	8	9	16	-17	-12.3	33
18	Tottenham	33	7	10	16	-11	-14.1	31
19	Burnley	34	4	8	22	-34	-39.9	20
20	Wolves	33	3	8	22	-37	-23.6	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	3	1	+26	+14.1	39
2	Arsenal	16	12	2	2	+25	+18.6	38
3	Aston Villa	17	11	2	4	+9	+1.9	35
4	Man United	16	10	3	3	+12	+12.6	33
5	Liverpool	16	9	4	3	+12	+10.4	31
6	Brighton	17	8	6	3	+10	+7.4	30
7	Fulham	16	9	2	5	+8	+1.9	29
8	Sunderland	17	8	5	4	+4	-4.1	29
9	Brentford	17	7	7	3	+9	+11.8	28
10	Bournemouth	17	6	9	2	+6	+12.5	27
11	Leeds	17	7	5	5	+5	+8.9	26
12	Newcastle	17	8	2	7	+2	+6.7	26
13	Chelsea	17	6	5	6	+2	+9.0	23
14	Everton	17	6	4	7	+1	-1.5	22
15	Crystal Palace	17	4	8	5	-3	+9.5	20
16	Nott'm Forest	17	4	6	7	-3	+1.9	18
17	West Ham	16	4	4	8	-6	-1.5	16
18	Wolves	16	3	3	10	-14	-8.3	12
19	Tottenham	17	2	5	10	-10	-4.2	11
20	Burnley	17	2	5	10	-11	-16.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	9	5	3	+12	+13.2	32
2	Man City	17	9	4	4	+11	+11.7	31
3	Chelsea	17	7	4	6	+6	+6.8	25
4	Man United	17	6	7	4	+1	-0.4	25
5	Everton	16	7	4	5	+0	-8.3	25
6	Liverpool	17	7	3	7	-1	+4.3	24
7	Crystal Palace	15	7	2	6	+2	-1.6	23
8	Aston Villa	16	6	5	5	-3	-7.2	23
9	Bournemouth	17	5	7	5	-6	-7.8	22
10	Nott'm Forest	17	6	3	8	-1	-10.5	21
11	Tottenham	16	5	5	6	-1	-9.9	20
12	Brighton	17	5	5	7	-1	-0.1	20
13	Brentford	16	6	2	8	-5	-2.9	20
14	West Ham	17	4	5	8	-11	-10.8	17
15	Sunderland	17	4	5	8	-13	-11.8	17
16	Newcastle	16	4	4	8	-5	-2.8	16
17	Fulham	17	4	4	9	-11	-6.5	16
18	Leeds	17	2	8	7	-12	-7.8	14
19	Burnley	17	2	3	12	-23	-23.0	9
20	Wolves	17	0	5	12	-23	-15.3	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.