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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Man City

U S T T T

4–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,5

This season — Premier League · 27/28 matches

Win Ø 32%

52%

11%

Points per game

1,7

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

67%

43%

Both score Ø 51%

52%

50%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

71% Possession 29%

22 Shots 2

9 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 4. · Aston Villa 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	28	16	9	3	+20	57
2	Tottenham	29	15	10	4	+27	55
3	Arsenal	29	15	7	7	+16	52
4	Man City	27	14	5	8	+17	47
5	Man United	28	13	8	7	+11	47
6	West Ham	28	12	10	6	+11	46
7	Stoke	28	12	6	10	-3	42
8	Liverpool	27	11	8	8	+5	41
9	Southampton	28	11	7	10	+7	40
10	Chelsea	28	10	9	9	+4	39
11	Everton	27	9	11	7	+13	38
12	Watford	28	10	7	11	+0	37
13	West Brom	28	9	9	10	-7	36
14	Crystal Palace	28	9	6	13	-6	33
15	Bournemouth	28	8	8	12	-12	32
16	Swansea	28	7	9	12	-10	30
17	Sunderland	28	6	6	16	-19	24
18	Norwich	28	6	6	16	-22	24
19	Newcastle	27	6	6	15	-23	24
20	Aston Villa	28	3	7	18	-29	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	15	8	5	2	+15	29
2	Leicester	14	8	5	1	+9	29
3	Man City	14	9	1	4	+18	28
4	Man United	14	8	4	2	+12	28
5	Arsenal	14	8	3	3	+9	27
6	West Ham	14	7	5	2	+8	26
7	Southampton	14	7	2	5	+9	23
8	Stoke	14	7	2	5	+2	23
9	Chelsea	14	5	5	4	+5	20
10	Liverpool	13	5	5	3	+2	20
11	Watford	14	5	4	5	+2	19
12	West Brom	14	5	4	5	-2	19
13	Newcastle	13	4	5	4	+2	17
14	Swansea	14	4	5	5	-5	17
15	Everton	14	4	4	6	+4	16
16	Sunderland	14	4	4	6	+1	16
17	Norwich	14	4	4	6	-3	16
18	Bournemouth	14	4	4	6	-4	16
19	Crystal Palace	14	4	2	8	-4	14
20	Aston Villa	14	2	4	8	-12	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	14	8	4	2	+11	28
2	Tottenham	14	7	5	2	+12	26
3	Arsenal	15	7	4	4	+7	25
4	Everton	13	5	7	1	+9	22
5	Liverpool	14	6	3	5	+3	21
6	West Ham	14	5	5	4	+3	20
7	Man United	14	5	4	5	-1	19
8	Chelsea	14	5	4	5	-1	19
9	Man City	13	5	4	4	-1	19
10	Crystal Palace	14	5	4	5	-2	19
11	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-5	19
12	Watford	14	5	3	6	-2	18
13	Southampton	14	4	5	5	-2	17
14	West Brom	14	4	5	5	-5	17
15	Bournemouth	14	4	4	6	-8	16
16	Swansea	14	3	4	7	-5	13
17	Norwich	14	2	2	10	-19	8
18	Sunderland	14	2	2	10	-20	8
19	Newcastle	14	2	1	11	-25	7
20	Aston Villa	14	1	3	10	-17	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.