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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Swansea

T S S U U

0–1

Full-time

Southampton

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

2,8

1,3

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,5

0,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 32%

24%

40%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

48%

44%

Both score Ø 44%

52%

36%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

13 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 16. · Southampton 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	25	15	8	2	+20	53
2	Tottenham	25	13	9	3	+26	48
3	Arsenal	25	14	6	5	+17	48
4	Man City	25	14	5	6	+21	47
5	Man United	26	11	8	7	+9	41
6	West Ham	25	10	9	6	+9	39
7	Southampton	25	10	7	8	+9	37
8	Everton	25	8	11	6	+12	35
9	Liverpool	25	9	8	8	-4	35
10	Watford	25	9	6	10	+0	33
11	Stoke	25	9	6	10	-7	33
12	Crystal Palace	25	9	5	11	-4	32
13	Chelsea	25	7	9	9	-2	30
14	West Brom	25	7	8	10	-9	29
15	Bournemouth	25	7	7	11	-12	28
16	Swansea	25	6	9	10	-9	27
17	Newcastle	25	6	6	13	-18	24
18	Sunderland	26	6	5	15	-18	23
19	Norwich	25	6	5	14	-20	23
20	Aston Villa	25	3	7	15	-20	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	9	1	3	+19	28
2	Tottenham	13	7	4	2	+14	25
3	Leicester	12	7	4	1	+8	25
4	Arsenal	12	7	3	2	+9	24
5	Southampton	13	7	2	4	+10	23
6	Man United	12	6	4	2	+10	22
7	West Ham	12	5	5	2	+6	20
8	Watford	13	5	3	5	+2	18
9	Newcastle	13	4	5	4	+2	17
10	Chelsea	13	4	5	4	+1	17
11	Stoke	12	5	2	5	+0	17
12	Liverpool	12	4	5	3	-1	17
13	Swansea	13	4	5	4	-4	17
14	Everton	13	4	4	5	+5	16
15	West Brom	13	4	4	5	-3	16
16	Sunderland	13	4	3	6	+1	15
17	Norwich	12	4	3	5	-2	15
18	Crystal Palace	13	4	2	7	-3	14
19	Bournemouth	12	3	4	5	-4	13
20	Aston Villa	12	2	4	6	-4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	13	8	4	1	+12	28
2	Arsenal	13	7	3	3	+8	24
3	Tottenham	12	6	5	1	+12	23
4	Everton	12	4	7	1	+7	19
5	West Ham	13	5	4	4	+3	19
6	Man City	12	5	4	3	+2	19
7	Man United	14	5	4	5	-1	19
8	Crystal Palace	12	5	3	4	-1	18
9	Liverpool	13	5	3	5	-3	18
10	Stoke	13	4	4	5	-7	16
11	Watford	12	4	3	5	-2	15
12	Bournemouth	13	4	3	6	-8	15
13	Southampton	12	3	5	4	-1	14
14	Chelsea	12	3	4	5	-3	13
15	West Brom	12	3	4	5	-6	13
16	Swansea	12	2	4	6	-5	10
17	Norwich	13	2	2	9	-18	8
18	Sunderland	13	2	2	9	-19	8
19	Newcastle	12	2	1	9	-20	7
20	Aston Villa	13	1	3	9	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.