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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Arsenal

S U U S S

3–1

Full-time

Stoke

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 50%

64%

36%

Points per game

2,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

64%

29%

Both score Ø 61%

71%

50%

Average goals

3,4

2,5

Scored

2,4

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

64% Possession 36%

21 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 7

3 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 2. · Stoke 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	14	11	1	2	+21	34
2	Arsenal	14	9	4	1	+19	31
3	Liverpool	14	9	3	2	+17	30
4	Man City	14	9	3	2	+15	30
5	Tottenham	14	7	6	1	+14	27
6	Man United	14	5	6	3	+3	21
7	Watford	15	6	3	6	-5	21
8	West Brom	14	5	5	4	+3	20
9	Everton	15	5	5	5	+0	20
10	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-3	19
11	Bournemouth	14	5	3	6	-3	18
12	Southampton	14	4	5	5	-2	17
13	Middlesbrough	14	3	6	5	-2	15
14	Crystal Palace	14	4	2	8	-2	14
15	Burnley	14	4	2	8	-11	14
16	Leicester	14	3	4	7	-7	13
17	West Ham	14	3	3	8	-14	12
18	Sunderland	14	3	2	9	-10	11
19	Hull	14	3	2	9	-18	11
20	Swansea	14	2	3	9	-15	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	7	6	0	1	+16	18
2	Tottenham	7	5	2	0	+10	17
3	Liverpool	6	5	1	0	+15	16
4	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Bournemouth	7	4	1	2	+5	13
6	Everton	7	3	4	0	+5	13
7	Burnley	8	4	1	3	+3	13
8	Watford	8	4	1	3	+1	13
9	Man City	7	3	3	1	+5	12
10	Leicester	7	3	3	1	+5	12
11	Southampton	7	3	3	1	+2	12
12	West Brom	7	3	2	2	+3	11
13	Man United	7	2	4	1	+4	10
14	Stoke	7	3	1	3	-2	10
15	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-7	8
16	Crystal Palace	7	2	1	4	+1	7
17	Middlesbrough	7	2	1	4	-1	7
18	Sunderland	7	2	1	4	-4	7
19	Hull	7	2	1	4	-6	7
20	Swansea	7	1	2	4	-6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	6	0	1	+10	18
2	Arsenal	7	5	2	0	+13	17
3	Chelsea	7	5	1	1	+5	16
4	Liverpool	8	4	2	2	+2	14
5	Man United	7	3	2	2	-1	11
6	Tottenham	7	2	4	1	+4	10
7	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+0	9
8	Stoke	7	2	3	2	-1	9
9	Middlesbrough	7	1	5	1	-1	8
10	Watford	7	2	2	3	-6	8
11	Crystal Palace	7	2	1	4	-3	7
12	Everton	8	2	1	5	-5	7
13	Southampton	7	1	2	4	-4	5
14	Bournemouth	7	1	2	4	-8	5
15	Sunderland	7	1	1	5	-6	4
16	West Ham	7	1	1	5	-7	4
17	Swansea	7	1	1	5	-9	4
18	Hull	7	1	1	5	-12	4
19	Leicester	7	0	1	6	-12	1
20	Burnley	6	0	1	5	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.