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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Southampton

U U T T T

2–3

Full-time

Chelsea

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 35%

16%

53%

Points per game

0,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

56%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

10 Shots 17

7 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 7

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 14

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 18. · Chelsea 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	32	27	3	2	+66	84
2	Man United	32	22	5	5	+38	71
3	Liverpool	33	19	10	4	+40	67
4	Tottenham	32	20	7	5	+37	67
5	Chelsea	32	17	6	9	+23	57
6	Arsenal	32	16	6	10	+18	54
7	Burnley	32	13	10	9	+3	49
8	Leicester	32	11	10	11	+3	43
9	Everton	33	11	8	14	-15	41
10	Newcastle	32	10	8	14	-8	38
11	Bournemouth	33	9	11	13	-12	38
12	Watford	33	10	7	16	-17	37
13	Brighton	32	8	11	13	-14	35
14	West Ham	32	8	10	14	-18	34
15	Swansea	32	8	8	16	-19	32
16	Huddersfield	33	8	8	17	-28	32
17	Crystal Palace	33	7	10	16	-19	31
18	Southampton	32	5	13	14	-19	28
19	Stoke	33	6	9	18	-33	27
20	West Brom	33	3	12	18	-26	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	14	1	1	+40	43
2	Man United	16	13	2	1	+28	41
3	Arsenal	17	13	2	2	+26	41
4	Liverpool	16	10	6	0	+28	36
5	Tottenham	15	10	4	1	+22	34
6	Chelsea	17	10	3	4	+13	33
7	Everton	17	9	3	5	+5	30
8	Brighton	17	6	7	4	-2	25
9	Leicester	16	6	5	5	+3	23
10	Bournemouth	17	6	5	6	-3	23
11	Watford	17	6	5	6	-5	23
12	Newcastle	16	6	4	6	+1	22
13	Burnley	15	6	4	5	+0	22
14	West Ham	15	6	4	5	-1	22
15	Swansea	15	6	2	7	-4	20
16	Huddersfield	16	5	5	6	-7	20
17	Stoke	17	5	4	8	-9	19
18	Crystal Palace	16	4	5	7	-6	17
19	Southampton	16	3	7	6	-5	16
20	West Brom	17	2	8	7	-9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	13	2	1	+26	41
2	Tottenham	17	10	3	4	+15	33
3	Liverpool	17	9	4	4	+12	31
4	Man United	16	9	3	4	+10	30
5	Burnley	17	7	6	4	+3	27
6	Chelsea	15	7	3	5	+10	24
7	Leicester	16	5	5	6	+0	20
8	Newcastle	16	4	4	8	-9	16
9	Bournemouth	16	3	6	7	-9	15
10	Watford	16	4	2	10	-12	14
11	Crystal Palace	17	3	5	9	-13	14
12	Arsenal	15	3	4	8	-8	13
13	Southampton	16	2	6	8	-14	12
14	Swansea	17	2	6	9	-15	12
15	West Ham	17	2	6	9	-17	12
16	Huddersfield	17	3	3	11	-21	12
17	Everton	16	2	5	9	-20	11
18	Brighton	15	2	4	9	-12	10
19	Stoke	16	1	5	10	-24	8
20	West Brom	16	1	4	11	-17	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.