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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Watford

T T U S S

1–2

Full-time

Chelsea

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 53%

44%

61%

Points per game

1,5

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

56%

61%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,4

1,9

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

35% Possession 65%

11 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 5

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 9. · Chelsea 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	19	16	3	0	+36	51
2	Tottenham	19	15	0	4	+24	45
3	Man City	19	14	2	3	+36	44
4	Arsenal	19	11	5	3	+16	38
5	Chelsea	18	11	4	3	+20	37
6	Man United	19	9	5	5	+6	32
7	Leicester	19	8	4	7	+2	28
8	Everton	19	7	6	6	+2	27
9	Watford	18	8	3	7	+0	27
10	Wolves	19	7	5	7	-2	26
11	Bournemouth	19	8	2	9	-6	26
12	West Ham	18	7	3	8	-2	24
13	Brighton	19	6	4	9	-6	22
14	Crystal Palace	19	5	4	10	-8	19
15	Newcastle	19	4	5	10	-12	17
16	Southampton	18	3	6	9	-14	15
17	Cardiff	19	4	3	12	-20	15
18	Burnley	19	3	3	13	-24	12
19	Fulham	19	2	5	12	-26	11
20	Huddersfield	19	2	4	13	-22	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	9	0	1	+26	27
2	Liverpool	9	8	1	0	+20	25
3	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+11	23
4	Chelsea	10	6	3	1	+11	21
5	Tottenham	8	6	0	2	+11	18
6	Man United	9	5	3	1	+5	18
7	Everton	10	5	3	2	+3	18
8	Bournemouth	10	5	2	3	+2	17
9	Brighton	9	4	3	2	+3	15
10	Watford	9	5	0	4	-1	15
11	Leicester	9	4	2	3	+3	14
12	Wolves	10	4	2	4	-1	14
13	West Ham	10	4	1	5	-2	13
14	Cardiff	10	4	1	5	-7	13
15	Crystal Palace	9	2	3	4	-3	9
16	Fulham	9	2	3	4	-8	9
17	Southampton	8	1	5	2	-3	8
18	Newcastle	10	2	1	7	-8	7
19	Burnley	9	2	1	6	-10	7
20	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	11	9	0	2	+13	27
2	Liverpool	10	8	2	0	+16	26
3	Man City	9	5	2	2	+10	17
4	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+9	16
5	Arsenal	9	4	3	2	+5	15
6	Man United	10	4	2	4	+1	14
7	Leicester	10	4	2	4	-1	14
8	Watford	9	3	3	3	+1	12
9	Wolves	9	3	3	3	-1	12
10	West Ham	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	Newcastle	9	2	4	3	-4	10
12	Crystal Palace	10	3	1	6	-5	10
13	Everton	9	2	3	4	-1	9
14	Bournemouth	9	3	0	6	-8	9
15	Brighton	10	2	1	7	-9	7
16	Southampton	10	2	1	7	-11	7
17	Huddersfield	9	1	2	6	-12	5
18	Burnley	10	1	2	7	-14	5
19	Cardiff	9	0	2	7	-13	2
20	Fulham	10	0	2	8	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.