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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Burnley

T U T T T

1–0

Full-time

Brighton

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 27%

13%

40%

Points per game

0,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

60%

53%

Both score Ø 54%

47%

60%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

2,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

37% Possession 63%

14 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 19. · Brighton 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	13	3	0	+28	42
2	Man City	15	13	2	0	+38	41
3	Tottenham	15	11	0	4	+12	33
4	Chelsea	15	9	4	2	+18	31
5	Arsenal	15	9	4	2	+14	31
6	Everton	15	6	5	4	+4	23
7	Bournemouth	16	7	2	7	-1	23
8	Man United	15	6	5	4	-1	23
9	Leicester	15	6	4	5	+3	22
10	Brighton	15	6	3	6	-2	21
11	Watford	15	6	2	7	-3	20
12	Wolves	15	5	4	6	-3	19
13	West Ham	15	5	3	7	-3	18
14	Newcastle	15	3	4	8	-8	13
15	Crystal Palace	15	3	3	9	-9	12
16	Cardiff	15	3	2	10	-16	11
17	Huddersfield	15	2	4	9	-16	10
18	Southampton	15	1	6	8	-16	9
19	Burnley	15	2	3	10	-18	9
20	Fulham	15	2	3	10	-21	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	8	0	0	+25	24
2	Liverpool	7	6	1	0	+14	19
3	Chelsea	8	5	3	0	+10	18
4	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+8	17
5	Everton	8	5	2	1	+7	17
6	Brighton	7	4	2	1	+4	14
7	Bournemouth	9	4	2	3	+0	14
8	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+5	12
9	Man United	7	3	3	1	+0	12
10	Watford	8	4	0	4	-2	12
11	Leicester	7	3	2	2	+4	11
12	Wolves	8	3	2	3	-1	11
13	West Ham	8	3	1	4	-1	10
14	Cardiff	8	3	1	4	-4	10
15	Fulham	7	2	2	3	-6	8
16	Newcastle	8	2	0	6	-7	6
17	Southampton	7	0	5	2	-4	5
18	Crystal Palace	7	1	2	4	-4	5
19	Huddersfield	8	1	2	5	-7	5
20	Burnley	7	1	1	5	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+14	23
2	Tottenham	9	7	0	2	+7	21
3	Man City	7	5	2	0	+13	17
4	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	+8	13
6	Man United	8	3	2	3	-1	11
7	Leicester	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Bournemouth	7	3	0	4	-1	9
9	Watford	7	2	2	3	-1	8
10	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Newcastle	7	1	4	2	-1	7
13	Crystal Palace	8	2	1	5	-5	7
14	Brighton	8	2	1	5	-6	7
15	Everton	7	1	3	3	-3	6
16	Huddersfield	7	1	2	4	-9	5
17	Burnley	8	1	2	5	-11	5
18	Southampton	8	1	1	6	-12	4
19	Cardiff	7	0	1	6	-12	1
20	Fulham	8	0	1	7	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.