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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Arsenal

S S U S T

3–1

Full-time

Burnley

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,5

1,8

Scored

2,0

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 39%

59%

18%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

65%

53%

Both score Ø 59%

76%

41%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,2

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

11 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 3

2 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 5. · Burnley 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	15	3	0	+32	48
2	Man City	17	14	2	1	+38	44
3	Tottenham	17	13	0	4	+15	39
4	Chelsea	17	11	4	2	+21	37
5	Arsenal	17	10	4	3	+14	34
6	Man United	17	7	5	5	+0	26
7	Wolves	18	7	4	7	-2	25
8	Everton	17	6	6	5	+2	24
9	West Ham	17	7	3	7	+0	24
10	Watford	17	7	3	7	-2	24
11	Bournemouth	17	7	2	8	-3	23
12	Leicester	17	6	4	7	+0	22
13	Brighton	17	6	3	8	-4	21
14	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-8	16
15	Crystal Palace	17	4	3	10	-9	15
16	Cardiff	17	4	2	11	-16	14
17	Southampton	17	2	6	9	-16	12
18	Burnley	17	3	3	11	-18	12
19	Huddersfield	17	2	4	11	-18	10
20	Fulham	17	2	3	12	-26	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	9	0	0	+27	27
2	Liverpool	8	7	1	0	+16	22
3	Chelsea	9	6	3	0	+12	21
4	Arsenal	9	6	2	1	+9	20
5	Everton	9	5	3	1	+7	18
6	Tottenham	7	5	0	2	+6	15
7	Man United	8	4	3	1	+3	15
8	Watford	9	5	0	4	-1	15
9	Brighton	8	4	2	2	+3	14
10	Bournemouth	9	4	2	3	+0	14
11	Wolves	10	4	2	4	-1	14
12	West Ham	9	4	1	4	+0	13
13	Cardiff	9	4	1	4	-3	13
14	Leicester	8	3	2	3	+2	11
15	Southampton	8	1	5	2	-3	8
16	Crystal Palace	8	2	2	4	-3	8
17	Fulham	8	2	2	4	-8	8
18	Burnley	8	2	1	5	-6	7
19	Newcastle	9	2	0	7	-8	6
20	Huddersfield	9	1	2	6	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	8	2	0	+16	26
2	Tottenham	10	8	0	2	+9	24
3	Man City	8	5	2	1	+11	17
4	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+9	16
5	Arsenal	8	4	2	2	+5	14
6	West Ham	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Wolves	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Leicester	9	3	2	4	-2	11
9	Man United	9	3	2	4	-3	11
10	Newcastle	8	2	4	2	+0	10
11	Watford	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Bournemouth	8	3	0	5	-3	9
13	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	-6	7
14	Brighton	9	2	1	6	-7	7
15	Everton	8	1	3	4	-5	6
16	Huddersfield	8	1	2	5	-10	5
17	Burnley	9	1	2	6	-12	5
18	Southampton	9	1	1	7	-13	4
19	Cardiff	8	0	1	7	-13	1
20	Fulham	9	0	1	8	-18	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.