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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Chelsea

S U T S T

2–0

Full-time

Man City

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,8

3,2

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+2,5

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 74%

60%

87%

Points per game

2,1

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

53%

47%

Average goals

2,9

3,5

Scored

2,1

3,0

Conceded

0,9

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+2,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

38% Possession 62%

8 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 13

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 5. · Man City 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	13	3	0	+28	42
2	Man City	15	13	2	0	+38	41
3	Arsenal	16	10	4	2	+15	34
4	Tottenham	15	11	0	4	+12	33
5	Chelsea	15	9	4	2	+18	31
6	Man United	16	7	5	4	+2	26
7	Everton	15	6	5	4	+4	23
8	Bournemouth	16	7	2	7	-1	23
9	Leicester	15	6	4	5	+3	22
10	West Ham	16	6	3	7	-2	21
11	Brighton	16	6	3	7	-3	21
12	Watford	15	6	2	7	-3	20
13	Wolves	15	5	4	6	-3	19
14	Cardiff	16	4	2	10	-15	14
15	Newcastle	15	3	4	8	-8	13
16	Crystal Palace	16	3	3	10	-10	12
17	Burnley	16	3	3	10	-17	12
18	Huddersfield	16	2	4	10	-17	10
19	Southampton	16	1	6	9	-17	9
20	Fulham	16	2	3	11	-24	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	8	0	0	+25	24
2	Arsenal	9	6	2	1	+9	20
3	Liverpool	7	6	1	0	+14	19
4	Chelsea	8	5	3	0	+10	18
5	Everton	8	5	2	1	+7	17
6	Man United	8	4	3	1	+3	15
7	Brighton	7	4	2	1	+4	14
8	Bournemouth	9	4	2	3	+0	14
9	West Ham	9	4	1	4	+0	13
10	Cardiff	9	4	1	4	-3	13
11	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+5	12
12	Watford	8	4	0	4	-2	12
13	Leicester	7	3	2	2	+4	11
14	Wolves	8	3	2	3	-1	11
15	Fulham	7	2	2	3	-6	8
16	Burnley	8	2	1	5	-6	7
17	Newcastle	8	2	0	6	-7	6
18	Southampton	7	0	5	2	-4	5
19	Crystal Palace	7	1	2	4	-4	5
20	Huddersfield	8	1	2	5	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+14	23
2	Tottenham	9	7	0	2	+7	21
3	Man City	7	5	2	0	+13	17
4	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	+8	13
6	Man United	8	3	2	3	-1	11
7	Leicester	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Bournemouth	7	3	0	4	-1	9
9	Watford	7	2	2	3	-1	8
10	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Newcastle	7	1	4	2	-1	7
13	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	-6	7
14	Brighton	9	2	1	6	-7	7
15	Everton	7	1	3	3	-3	6
16	Huddersfield	8	1	2	5	-10	5
17	Burnley	8	1	2	5	-11	5
18	Southampton	9	1	1	7	-13	4
19	Cardiff	7	0	1	6	-12	1
20	Fulham	9	0	1	8	-18	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.