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Championship

Referee: Darren Bond

Derby

U U U U

1–2

Full-time

Leeds

U U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 13%

25%

Both score Ø 75%

75%

Average goals

1,5

2,0

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 13%

25%

Both score Ø 75%

75%

Average goals

1,5

2,0

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

54% Possession 46%

9 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 7

2 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 16. · Leeds 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ipswich	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Brighton	4	3	1	0	+3	10
3	Charlton	4	2	2	0	+3	8
4	Milton Keynes Dons	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	Hull	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	QPR	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Cardiff	4	1	3	0	+2	6
8	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+2	5
9	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Sheffield Weds	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Nott'm Forest	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Preston	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Burnley	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+1	4
15	Leeds	4	0	4	0	+0	4
16	Derby	4	0	4	0	+0	4
17	Wolves	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Bristol City	4	1	1	2	-3	4
19	Reading	4	0	3	1	-1	3
20	Huddersfield	4	0	3	1	-2	3
21	Blackburn	5	0	3	2	-2	3
22	Bolton	5	0	3	2	-4	3
23	Fulham	4	0	2	2	-2	2
24	Rotherham	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	QPR	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Cardiff	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Sheffield Weds	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Burnley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	+2	3
12	Milton Keynes Dons	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Huddersfield	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Derby	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Bolton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Reading	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Wolves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Preston	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	1
24	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milton Keynes Dons	2	1	1	0	+3	4
2	Ipswich	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	QPR	2	1	0	1	-1	3
7	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Derby	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Middlesbrough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Charlton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Reading	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Blackburn	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-2	1
22	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-4	1
24	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.