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Championship

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Middlesbrough

T S S S S

3–0

Full-time

Leeds

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,2

This season — Championship · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

63%

25%

Points per game

2,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

50%

38%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,4

2,1

Scored

1,8

1,1

Conceded

0,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

40% Possession 60%

6 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 2. · Leeds 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	9	6	3	0	+6	21
2	Middlesbrough	8	5	2	1	+9	17
3	Reading	9	4	3	2	+7	15
4	Hull	9	4	3	2	+5	15
5	Cardiff	9	4	3	2	+3	15
6	Burnley	9	4	3	2	+2	15
7	Ipswich	9	4	3	2	+0	15
8	Derby	9	3	5	1	+3	14
9	Birmingham	8	3	3	2	+2	12
10	Nott'm Forest	9	3	3	3	+0	12
11	Sheffield Weds	9	3	3	3	-1	12
12	QPR	9	3	3	3	-3	12
13	Fulham	8	3	2	3	+4	11
14	Leeds	8	2	5	1	+1	11
15	Huddersfield	9	2	4	3	-1	10
16	Wolves	8	2	3	3	-2	9
17	Charlton	9	2	3	4	-3	9
18	Blackburn	9	1	5	3	+0	8
19	Brentford	8	2	2	4	-3	8
20	Rotherham	9	2	2	5	-6	8
21	Bolton	9	1	5	3	-6	8
22	Preston	9	1	4	4	-4	7
23	Milton Keynes Dons	9	2	1	6	-5	7
24	Bristol City	9	1	3	5	-8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	4	4	0	0	+4	12
2	Hull	5	3	2	0	+5	11
3	Burnley	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Cardiff	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Middlesbrough	4	3	0	1	+6	9
6	Ipswich	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+4	7
8	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Sheffield Weds	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Bolton	5	1	4	0	+1	7
11	Birmingham	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Huddersfield	5	1	3	1	+2	6
13	Reading	4	1	2	1	+3	5
14	Blackburn	4	1	2	1	+2	5
15	QPR	4	1	2	1	+1	5
16	Wolves	4	1	2	1	+0	5
17	Nott'm Forest	4	1	1	2	-1	4
18	Brentford	4	1	1	2	-2	4
19	Rotherham	4	1	1	2	-4	4
20	Leeds	4	0	3	1	-1	3
21	Derby	4	0	3	1	-1	3
22	Preston	5	0	3	2	-2	3
23	Milton Keynes Dons	5	1	0	4	-5	3
24	Bristol City	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Derby	5	3	2	0	+4	11
2	Reading	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	Brighton	5	2	3	0	+2	9
4	Middlesbrough	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Leeds	4	2	2	0	+2	8
6	Nott'm Forest	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Ipswich	4	2	1	1	-2	7
8	QPR	5	2	1	2	-4	7
9	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
10	Cardiff	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Burnley	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Fulham	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Milton Keynes Dons	4	1	1	2	+0	4
16	Hull	4	1	1	2	+0	4
17	Brentford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
18	Rotherham	5	1	1	3	-2	4
19	Wolves	4	1	1	2	-2	4
20	Preston	4	1	1	2	-2	4
21	Huddersfield	4	1	1	2	-3	4
22	Blackburn	5	0	3	2	-2	3
23	Charlton	5	0	2	3	-5	2
24	Bolton	4	0	1	3	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.