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Championship

Referee: Lee Mason

Nott'm Forest

U U T S S

1–2

Full-time

Middlesbrough

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

43%

57%

Points per game

1,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

43%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

1,9

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

0,9

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

49% Possession 51%

20 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 9

5 Blocked shots 1

7 Goalkeeper saves 7

11 Corners 1

4 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 9. · Middlesbrough 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	7	6	1	0	+6	19
2	Middlesbrough	7	4	2	1	+8	14
3	Burnley	7	4	2	1	+3	14
4	Ipswich	8	4	2	2	+0	14
5	Hull	7	4	1	2	+5	13
6	Birmingham	7	3	3	1	+4	12
7	Cardiff	7	3	3	1	+3	12
8	QPR	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Derby	7	2	4	1	+1	10
11	Reading	7	2	3	2	+4	9
12	Charlton	7	2	3	2	+1	9
13	Fulham	6	2	2	2	+1	8
14	Leeds	7	1	5	1	+0	8
15	Wolves	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	Milton Keynes Dons	7	2	1	4	-2	7
17	Bolton	7	1	4	2	-3	7
18	Sheffield Weds	7	1	3	3	-3	6
19	Preston	7	1	3	3	-3	6
20	Huddersfield	7	1	3	3	-4	6
21	Brentford	6	1	2	3	-3	5
22	Bristol City	7	1	2	4	-6	5
23	Blackburn	7	0	4	3	-3	4
24	Rotherham	7	0	2	5	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	4	4	0	0	+4	12
2	Burnley	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Middlesbrough	4	3	0	1	+6	9
4	Hull	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Ipswich	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Cardiff	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Bolton	4	1	3	0	+1	6
10	Reading	4	1	2	1	+3	5
11	QPR	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Sheffield Weds	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Leeds	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	Milton Keynes Dons	3	1	0	2	-2	3
18	Derby	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	2
20	Huddersfield	3	0	2	1	-1	2
21	Preston	4	0	2	2	-2	2
22	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Bristol City	3	0	1	2	-3	1
24	Rotherham	3	0	1	2	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Derby	4	2	2	0	+2	8
2	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Nott'm Forest	4	2	1	1	+1	7
4	Ipswich	4	2	1	1	-2	7
5	QPR	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Cardiff	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+1	4
11	Reading	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Milton Keynes Dons	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Hull	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Brentford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	Burnley	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Preston	3	1	1	1	-1	4
17	Bristol City	4	1	1	2	-3	4
18	Huddersfield	4	1	1	2	-3	4
19	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-2	3
20	Charlton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
21	Blackburn	4	0	2	2	-2	2
22	Sheffield Weds	4	0	2	2	-3	2
23	Rotherham	4	0	1	3	-4	1
24	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.