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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota da Silva

Nacional

T S T S T

1–1

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

U S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

20%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

20%

80%

Average goals

1,6

4,6

Scored

0,8

2,4

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

40%

20%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

20%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

20%

80%

Average goals

1,6

4,6

Scored

0,8

2,4

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1 Shots 1

1 Shots on target 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 11. · Vitoria Setubal 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	4	2	0	+8	14
2	Sp Lisbon	6	4	2	0	+5	14
3	Benfica	6	4	0	2	+12	12
4	Sp Braga	5	3	0	2	+7	9
5	Estoril	5	3	0	2	-2	9
6	Rio Ave	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	Arouca	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Boavista	6	2	2	2	-2	8
9	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	2	2	-4	8
10	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	3	1	+1	6
11	Nacional	5	2	0	3	+0	6
12	U. Madeira	5	1	3	1	+0	6
13	Guimaraes	5	1	3	1	-2	6
14	Belenenses	5	1	3	1	-4	6
15	Maritimo	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Tondela	5	1	0	4	-3	3
17	Moreirense	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Academica	5	0	0	5	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+14	12
2	Sp Braga	3	3	0	0	+9	9
3	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Estoril	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	U. Madeira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Maritimo	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	-2	4
13	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	3	0	+0	3
14	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Tondela	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Academica	3	0	0	3	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Rio Ave	3	1	2	0	+3	5
3	Porto	3	1	2	0	+2	5
4	Arouca	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	Boavista	3	1	1	1	-2	4
6	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	-2	4
7	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-5	3
9	Guimaraes	3	0	2	1	-3	2
10	U. Madeira	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	Maritimo	3	0	1	2	-5	1
12	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-6	1
13	Sp Braga	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
15	Benfica	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Nacional	3	0	0	3	-3	0
17	Academica	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Moreirense	3	0	0	3	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.