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Ligue 1

Referee: Stephane Jochem

Montpellier

T U T T T

2–1

Full-time

Lorient

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

43%

Points per game

0,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

43%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

57%

Average goals

2,1

2,7

Scored

0,6

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

12 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Montpellier 20. · Lorient 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	2	0	+13	20
2	St Etienne	7	5	1	1	+5	16
3	Rennes	8	4	3	1	+5	15
4	Reims	8	4	3	1	+5	15
5	Angers	8	4	3	1	+4	15
6	Caen	8	5	0	3	+0	15
7	Lyon	8	3	3	2	+4	12
8	Nice	7	3	2	2	+6	11
9	Lorient	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Monaco	7	3	2	2	-1	11
11	Bastia	8	3	1	4	-1	10
12	Bordeaux	8	2	4	2	-2	10
13	Guingamp	7	3	0	4	-4	9
14	Marseille	8	2	2	4	+4	8
15	Lille	7	1	4	2	-1	7
16	Toulouse	8	1	4	3	-5	7
17	Nantes	7	2	1	4	-7	7
18	Troyes	8	0	4	4	-10	4
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	8	0	2	6	-9	2
20	Montpellier	7	0	1	6	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reims	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Bastia	4	3	0	1	+5	9
3	Caen	4	3	0	1	+0	9
4	Rennes	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Marseille	5	2	1	2	+7	7
6	Paris SG	3	2	1	0	+5	7
7	Bordeaux	4	2	1	1	+3	7
8	Lorient	4	2	1	1	+3	7
9	St Etienne	3	2	1	0	+3	7
10	Nice	4	2	0	2	+4	6
11	Guingamp	3	2	0	1	+2	6
12	Toulouse	4	1	3	0	+1	6
13	Angers	4	1	3	0	+1	6
14	Nantes	4	2	0	2	-3	6
15	Lyon	4	1	2	1	+1	5
16	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	4
17	Troyes	5	0	3	2	-3	3
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Monaco	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Montpellier	4	0	0	4	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+3	10
3	Angers	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	St Etienne	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Lyon	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Rennes	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Caen	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Nice	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Reims	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Lorient	3	1	1	1	-2	4
11	Lille	4	0	3	1	-1	3
12	Bordeaux	4	0	3	1	-5	3
13	Guingamp	4	1	0	3	-6	3
14	Montpellier	3	0	1	2	-2	1
15	Marseille	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Nantes	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Bastia	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Toulouse	4	0	1	3	-6	1
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	5	0	1	4	-6	1
20	Troyes	3	0	1	2	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.