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Championship

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Milton Keynes Dons

U T T T T

1–3

Full-time

Derby

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milton Keynes Dons Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

This season — Championship · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

0,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

38%

25%

Both score Ø 51%

38%

63%

Average goals

2,1

1,6

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%

27 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 5

11 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

2 Offside 6

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milton Keynes Dons 20. · Derby 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	8	6	2	0	+6	20
2	Middlesbrough	8	5	2	1	+9	17
3	Burnley	8	4	3	1	+3	15
4	Hull	8	4	2	2	+5	14
5	Ipswich	8	4	2	2	+0	14
6	Reading	8	3	3	2	+6	12
7	Birmingham	7	3	3	1	+4	12
8	Cardiff	8	3	3	2	+2	12
9	Nott'm Forest	9	3	3	3	+0	12
10	QPR	9	3	3	3	-3	12
11	Fulham	8	3	2	3	+4	11
12	Leeds	8	2	5	1	+1	11
13	Derby	8	2	5	1	+1	11
14	Huddersfield	9	2	4	3	-1	10
15	Sheffield Weds	8	2	3	3	-2	9
16	Charlton	8	2	3	3	-2	9
17	Brentford	7	2	2	3	-2	8
18	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-2	8
19	Blackburn	8	1	4	3	+0	7
20	Milton Keynes Dons	8	2	1	5	-3	7
21	Bolton	8	1	4	3	-6	7
22	Preston	8	1	3	4	-4	6
23	Rotherham	8	1	2	5	-8	5
24	Bristol City	8	1	2	5	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	4	4	0	0	+4	12
2	Hull	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Burnley	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Middlesbrough	4	3	0	1	+6	9
5	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+4	7
6	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Ipswich	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Cardiff	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	Sheffield Weds	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Huddersfield	5	1	3	1	+2	6
12	Bolton	4	1	3	0	+1	6
13	Reading	4	1	2	1	+3	5
14	Blackburn	4	1	2	1	+2	5
15	QPR	4	1	2	1	+1	5
16	Wolves	4	1	2	1	+0	5
17	Brentford	3	1	1	1	-1	4
18	Nott'm Forest	4	1	1	2	-1	4
19	Rotherham	4	1	1	2	-4	4
20	Leeds	4	0	3	1	-1	3
21	Derby	4	0	3	1	-1	3
22	Milton Keynes Dons	4	1	0	3	-3	3
23	Preston	4	0	2	2	-2	2
24	Bristol City	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	2	2	0	+3	8
2	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+2	8
3	Leeds	4	2	2	0	+2	8
4	Derby	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Nott'm Forest	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Reading	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	Ipswich	4	2	1	1	-2	7
8	QPR	5	2	1	2	-4	7
9	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
10	Cardiff	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Burnley	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Fulham	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Milton Keynes Dons	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Hull	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Brentford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Preston	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Bristol City	4	1	1	2	-3	4
18	Huddersfield	4	1	1	2	-3	4
19	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-2	3
20	Blackburn	4	0	2	2	-2	2
21	Sheffield Weds	4	0	2	2	-3	2
22	Charlton	4	0	2	2	-4	2
23	Rotherham	4	0	1	3	-4	1
24	Bolton	4	0	1	3	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.