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Championship

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Middlesbrough

S U S S S

2–0

Full-time

Derby

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

0,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,2

This season — Championship · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 59%

65%

52%

Points per game

2,1

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

39%

Both score Ø 33%

22%

43%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

47% Possession 53%

16 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 7

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 1. · Derby 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	23	15	4	4	+22	49
2	Hull	24	14	5	5	+20	47
3	Derby	23	12	9	2	+20	45
4	Brighton	24	11	10	3	+6	43
5	Burnley	24	11	8	5	+11	41
6	Ipswich	24	11	7	6	+4	40
7	Brentford	24	10	6	8	+3	36
8	Birmingham	24	10	6	8	+2	36
9	Sheffield Weds	23	9	8	6	+7	35
10	Cardiff	24	8	10	6	+3	34
11	Wolves	25	9	7	9	+0	34
12	Leeds	24	7	10	7	-2	31
13	Reading	24	8	6	10	+1	30
14	Nott'm Forest	24	7	9	8	+1	30
15	QPR	25	7	9	9	-3	30
16	Blackburn	23	6	10	7	+2	28
17	Preston	24	6	10	8	-2	28
18	Fulham	24	6	9	9	-2	27
19	Huddersfield	24	6	7	11	-8	25
20	Milton Keynes Dons	24	6	4	14	-12	22
21	Rotherham	24	6	3	15	-13	21
22	Bristol City	24	4	9	11	-21	21
23	Charlton	24	4	7	13	-21	19
24	Bolton	24	2	11	11	-18	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	11	9	2	0	+18	29
2	Middlesbrough	12	9	2	1	+16	29
3	Burnley	12	8	2	2	+14	26
4	Brighton	13	8	2	3	+3	26
5	Derby	12	7	4	1	+15	25
6	Sheffield Weds	11	7	3	1	+12	24
7	Cardiff	12	6	5	1	+7	23
8	Brentford	12	6	2	4	+1	20
9	Reading	12	5	4	3	+6	19
10	QPR	13	4	7	2	+5	19
11	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+5	19
12	Ipswich	12	4	5	3	+2	17
13	Birmingham	12	5	2	5	-2	17
14	Fulham	12	4	4	4	+2	16
15	Milton Keynes Dons	12	5	1	6	-2	16
16	Blackburn	11	3	6	2	+4	15
17	Huddersfield	12	4	3	5	+1	15
18	Preston	12	3	6	3	+0	15
19	Bolton	12	2	8	2	+0	14
20	Rotherham	12	4	2	6	-1	14
21	Wolves	12	3	5	4	-1	14
22	Leeds	12	3	4	5	-4	13
23	Charlton	12	3	4	5	-7	13
24	Bristol City	12	2	5	5	-7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ipswich	12	7	2	3	+2	23
2	Middlesbrough	11	6	2	3	+6	20
3	Derby	11	5	5	1	+5	20
4	Wolves	13	6	2	5	+1	20
5	Birmingham	12	5	4	3	+4	19
6	Leeds	12	4	6	2	+2	18
7	Hull	13	5	3	5	+2	18
8	Brighton	11	3	8	0	+3	17
9	Brentford	12	4	4	4	+2	16
10	Burnley	12	3	6	3	-3	15
11	Blackburn	12	3	4	5	-2	13
12	Preston	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Fulham	12	2	5	5	-4	11
14	Cardiff	12	2	5	5	-4	11
15	Nott'm Forest	12	2	5	5	-4	11
16	Reading	12	3	2	7	-5	11
17	Sheffield Weds	12	2	5	5	-5	11
18	QPR	12	3	2	7	-8	11
19	Huddersfield	12	2	4	6	-9	10
20	Bristol City	12	2	4	6	-14	10
21	Rotherham	12	2	1	9	-12	7
22	Milton Keynes Dons	12	1	3	8	-10	6
23	Charlton	12	1	3	8	-14	6
24	Bolton	12	0	3	9	-18	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.