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Primeira Liga
Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida
Guimaraes
U S U S U
2–2
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Vitoria Setubal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
2,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
4,0
3,5
Scored
2,3
0,8
Conceded
1,7
2,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-1,8
This season — Primeira Liga · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 34%
38%
29%
Points per game
1,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
48%
67%
Both score Ø 60%
57%
62%
Average goals
2,9
3,3
Scored
1,4
1,5
Conceded
1,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

65% Possession 35%
21 Shots 6
8 Shots on target 4
6 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
5 Corners 1
5 Offside 5
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 10
0 Red cards 2
The table before the match Guimaraes 5. · Vitoria Setubal 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 22 17 4 1 +33 55
2 Benfica 22 17 1 4 +44 52
3 Porto 22 15 4 3 +28 49
4 Sp Braga 21 11 6 4 +21 39
5 Guimaraes 21 8 7 6 -1 31
6 Pacos Ferreira 21 8 6 7 +4 30
7 Rio Ave 21 8 5 8 -2 29
8 Arouca 21 6 10 5 +1 28
9 Belenenses 22 7 7 8 -18 28
10 Vitoria Setubal 21 6 8 7 -6 26
11 Estoril 21 6 5 10 -8 23
12 U. Madeira 21 6 5 10 -11 23
13 Moreirense 22 6 5 11 -12 23
14 Maritimo 21 6 4 11 -12 22
15 Nacional 22 5 6 11 -12 21
16 Boavista 21 5 5 11 -12 20
17 Academica 21 4 6 11 -17 18
18 Tondela 21 2 4 15 -20 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Guimaraes Vitoria Setubal
8′
André Claro 0–1
20′
🟨 Nuno Pinto
23′
🟨 Maciej Makuszewski
35′
🟨 André Horta
1–1 Josué Sá
43′
45′
🟨 Paulo Tavares
Half-time 1–1
48′
🟨 Paulo Tavares
48′
🟥 Paulo Tavares
Victor Andrade 🔁
↦ Licá
50′
51′
🔁 Ricardo Dani
↦ André Horta
56′
Salim Cissé 1–2
Otávio 🟨
59′
Franci 🔁
↦ B. Saré
62′
63′
🔁 Ruca
↦ M. Makuszewski
70′
🟥 Tiago Valente
2–2 Otavinho
71′
72′
🔁 Miguel Lourenço
↦ Salim Cissé
73′
🟨 Fábio Pacheco
76′
🟨 Willian Alves
86′
🟨 André Claro
90′
🟨 Costinha
90′
🟨 Ruca
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Guimaraes

56 João Miguel G
3 Josué Sá D
2 Pedrão D
76 Bruno Gaspar D
93 Dalbert Henrique D
99 B. Saré M
26 Cafú M
52 Otavinho M
11 Licá F
7 Valente M
38 Bruno Mendes F
Bench (7)
28 Victor Andrade
88 Franci
5 Luís Rocha
15 João Afonso
70 Tozé
55 J. Amoah
1 Douglas Jesus

Vitoria Setubal

82 Ricardo G
2 Tiago Valente
22 William Alves D
21 Nuno Pinto D
6 Fabio Pacheco M
8 Paulo Tavares M
17 M. Makuszewski F
77 André Horta M
18 André Claro F
11 Costinha M
92 Salim Cissé F
Bench (7)
66 Ricardo Dani
90 Ruca
44 Miguel Lourenço
9 Hassan
1 L. Raeder
19 A. Issoko
30 A. Meyong

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida · 167 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
28,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.