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Championship

Referee: Robert Jones

Aston Villa

S T T S S

4–2

Full-time

Birmingham

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,7

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,7

This season — Championship · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 32%

35%

29%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 68%

71%

65%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

74% Possession 26%

12 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 11. · Birmingham 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	18	11	3	4	+11	36
2	Middlesbrough	18	9	7	2	+12	34
3	West Brom	18	9	4	5	+13	31
4	Derby	17	9	4	4	+9	31
5	Sheffield United	18	9	4	5	+8	31
6	Leeds	17	8	6	3	+11	30
7	Nott'm Forest	18	7	9	2	+9	30
8	QPR	18	8	3	7	-4	27
9	Swansea	18	7	5	6	+3	26
10	Blackburn	18	6	8	4	-4	26
11	Aston Villa	17	6	6	5	+4	24
12	Birmingham	17	5	9	3	+3	24
13	Stoke	18	5	8	5	-1	23
14	Bristol City	18	6	4	8	-1	22
15	Brentford	18	5	6	7	+3	21
16	Preston	18	5	6	7	-1	21
17	Wigan	18	6	3	9	-7	21
18	Sheffield Weds	18	5	5	8	-10	20
19	Rotherham	18	4	7	7	-9	19
20	Reading	18	4	5	9	-5	17
21	Millwall	18	4	5	9	-7	17
22	Bolton	18	4	5	9	-12	17
23	Hull	18	4	4	10	-10	16
24	Ipswich	18	1	8	9	-15	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	9	6	1	2	+13	19
2	Leeds	9	5	3	1	+10	18
3	Sheffield United	9	5	3	1	+7	18
4	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	+7	18
5	Wigan	9	5	3	1	+4	18
6	Norwich	9	6	0	3	+2	18
7	Brentford	9	5	2	2	+9	17
8	Derby	8	5	2	1	+6	17
9	QPR	9	5	1	3	+3	16
10	Rotherham	9	4	4	1	+3	16
11	Nott'm Forest	9	4	4	1	+3	16
12	Preston	9	4	3	2	+7	15
13	Birmingham	9	3	6	0	+5	15
14	Aston Villa	8	4	3	1	+5	15
15	Millwall	9	4	3	2	+4	15
16	Swansea	9	4	2	3	+3	14
17	Blackburn	9	3	5	1	+1	14
18	Stoke	9	3	3	3	+0	12
19	Bristol City	9	3	2	4	+0	11
20	Reading	9	3	1	5	+1	10
21	Sheffield Weds	9	2	4	3	-4	10
22	Hull	9	2	2	5	-4	8
23	Bolton	9	2	1	6	-8	7
24	Ipswich	9	0	6	3	-5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	9	5	3	1	+9	18
2	Middlesbrough	9	4	4	1	+5	16
3	Nott'm Forest	9	3	5	1	+6	14
4	Derby	9	4	2	3	+3	14
5	Sheffield United	9	4	1	4	+1	13
6	Leeds	8	3	3	2	+1	12
7	West Brom	9	3	3	3	+0	12
8	Swansea	9	3	3	3	+0	12
9	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	-5	12
10	Stoke	9	2	5	2	-1	11
11	Bristol City	9	3	2	4	-1	11
12	QPR	9	3	2	4	-7	11
13	Bolton	9	2	4	3	-4	10
14	Sheffield Weds	9	3	1	5	-6	10
15	Aston Villa	9	2	3	4	-1	9
16	Birmingham	8	2	3	3	-2	9
17	Hull	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Reading	9	1	4	4	-6	7
19	Preston	9	1	3	5	-8	6
20	Ipswich	9	1	2	6	-10	5
21	Brentford	9	0	4	5	-6	4
22	Wigan	9	1	0	8	-11	3
23	Rotherham	9	0	3	6	-12	3
24	Millwall	9	0	2	7	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.