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Championship

Referee: Peter Bankes

Aston Villa

S S S U S

2–2

Full-time

Stoke

U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

4,2

2,2

Scored

2,8

1,3

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,5

This season — Championship · 20/21 matches

Win Ø 37%

40%

33%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

60%

48%

Both score Ø 61%

70%

52%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

9 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 0

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 8. · Stoke 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	21	13	4	4	+14	43
2	Leeds	20	11	6	3	+14	39
3	West Brom	21	11	5	5	+15	38
4	Derby	20	11	4	5	+10	37
5	Sheffield United	22	11	4	7	+9	37
6	Middlesbrough	21	9	9	3	+9	36
7	Nott'm Forest	21	8	10	3	+10	34
8	Aston Villa	20	8	7	5	+9	31
9	Birmingham	21	7	9	5	+5	30
10	Stoke	21	7	9	5	+2	30
11	Blackburn	21	7	9	5	-4	30
12	Swansea	21	8	5	8	+2	29
13	Bristol City	21	8	5	8	+1	29
14	QPR	21	8	4	9	-6	28
15	Preston	21	6	7	8	-3	25
16	Wigan	21	7	4	10	-6	25
17	Sheffield Weds	21	6	6	9	-11	24
18	Brentford	21	5	7	9	+1	22
19	Hull	21	5	6	10	-9	21
20	Rotherham	21	4	9	8	-11	21
21	Millwall	21	4	7	10	-9	19
22	Reading	21	4	6	11	-8	18
23	Bolton	21	4	6	11	-14	18
24	Ipswich	21	1	8	12	-20	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	11	7	3	1	+12	24
2	Norwich	11	8	0	3	+5	24
3	Wigan	11	6	3	2	+5	21
4	West Brom	10	6	2	2	+13	20
5	Derby	9	6	2	1	+7	20
6	Aston Villa	10	5	4	1	+7	19
7	Nott'm Forest	11	5	4	2	+4	19
8	Middlesbrough	11	5	4	2	+4	19
9	Birmingham	11	4	6	1	+7	18
10	Sheffield United	11	5	3	3	+5	18
11	Stoke	11	5	3	3	+3	18
12	Brentford	11	5	2	4	+7	17
13	Blackburn	10	4	5	1	+3	17
14	Rotherham	10	4	5	1	+3	17
15	Preston	10	4	4	2	+7	16
16	Millwall	11	4	4	3	+2	16
17	QPR	10	5	1	4	+2	16
18	Swansea	10	4	2	4	+2	14
19	Sheffield Weds	11	3	5	3	-3	14
20	Bristol City	10	3	3	4	+0	12
21	Reading	11	3	2	6	-1	11
22	Hull	10	2	3	5	-4	9
23	Bolton	10	2	2	6	-8	8
24	Ipswich	10	0	6	4	-6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	10	5	4	1	+9	19
2	Sheffield United	11	6	1	4	+4	19
3	West Brom	11	5	3	3	+2	18
4	Middlesbrough	10	4	5	1	+5	17
5	Derby	11	5	2	4	+3	17
6	Bristol City	11	5	2	4	+1	17
7	Nott'm Forest	10	3	6	1	+6	15
8	Leeds	9	4	3	2	+2	15
9	Swansea	11	4	3	4	+0	15
10	Blackburn	11	3	4	4	-7	13
11	Aston Villa	10	3	3	4	+2	12
12	Stoke	10	2	6	2	-1	12
13	Birmingham	10	3	3	4	-2	12
14	Hull	11	3	3	5	-5	12
15	QPR	11	3	3	5	-8	12
16	Bolton	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Sheffield Weds	10	3	1	6	-8	10
18	Preston	11	2	3	6	-10	9
19	Reading	10	1	4	5	-7	7
20	Brentford	10	0	5	5	-6	5
21	Ipswich	11	1	2	8	-14	5
22	Wigan	10	1	1	8	-11	4
23	Rotherham	11	0	4	7	-14	4
24	Millwall	10	0	3	7	-11	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.