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Championship

Referee: Jeremy Simpson

Stoke

T T S T T

0–1

Full-time

West Brom

U T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke West Brom

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,3

This season — Championship · 30/28 matches

Win Ø 40%

30%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 61%

47%

75%

Average goals

2,4

3,3

Scored

1,1

2,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%

13 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 17. · West Brom 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	30	16	9	5	+18	57
2	Sheffield United	31	16	7	8	+19	55
3	Leeds	29	15	7	7	+11	52
4	Middlesbrough	30	13	12	5	+12	51
5	Derby	28	14	8	6	+12	50
6	Bristol City	30	14	8	8	+9	50
7	West Brom	28	14	7	7	+21	49
8	Birmingham	31	11	13	7	+10	46
9	Nott'm Forest	31	11	12	8	+8	45
10	Swansea	31	12	8	11	+4	44
11	Aston Villa	30	10	13	7	+7	43
12	Hull	31	12	7	12	+3	43
13	Blackburn	31	11	10	10	-5	43
14	Preston	31	10	10	11	+1	40
15	QPR	30	11	6	13	-7	39
16	Sheffield Weds	30	10	9	11	-11	39
17	Stoke	30	9	11	10	-6	38
18	Brentford	30	9	10	11	+6	37
19	Wigan	31	9	6	16	-14	33
20	Millwall	30	7	9	14	-11	30
21	Rotherham	31	5	12	14	-20	27
22	Reading	31	5	11	15	-12	26
23	Bolton	31	5	8	18	-27	23
24	Ipswich	30	3	9	18	-28	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	15	9	3	3	+13	30
2	Derby	14	8	5	1	+10	29
3	Norwich	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Nott'm Forest	16	8	4	4	+7	28
5	Brentford	15	8	3	4	+13	27
6	Leeds	14	8	3	3	+9	27
7	Blackburn	16	7	6	3	+7	27
8	Wigan	15	8	3	4	+3	27
9	Aston Villa	16	6	8	2	+7	26
10	West Brom	14	7	4	3	+14	25
11	Birmingham	15	6	7	2	+10	25
12	Swansea	16	7	4	5	+4	25
13	Hull	15	7	3	5	+10	24
14	Middlesbrough	15	6	6	3	+5	24
15	Stoke	15	7	3	5	+1	24
16	Bristol City	15	6	5	4	+4	23
17	QPR	15	7	2	6	+2	23
18	Millwall	15	6	5	4	+2	23
19	Preston	15	5	7	3	+7	22
20	Sheffield Weds	15	5	7	3	-1	22
21	Rotherham	16	5	7	4	-3	22
22	Reading	15	4	3	8	-3	15
23	Ipswich	15	2	7	6	-6	13
24	Bolton	16	3	4	9	-11	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	15	7	7	1	+12	28
2	Middlesbrough	15	7	6	2	+7	27
3	Bristol City	15	8	3	4	+5	27
4	Sheffield United	16	7	4	5	+6	25
5	Leeds	15	7	4	4	+2	25
6	West Brom	14	7	3	4	+7	24
7	Derby	14	6	3	5	+2	21
8	Birmingham	16	5	6	5	+0	21
9	Swansea	15	5	4	6	+0	19
10	Hull	16	5	4	7	-7	19
11	Preston	16	5	3	8	-6	18
12	Nott'm Forest	15	3	8	4	+1	17
13	Aston Villa	14	4	5	5	+0	17
14	Sheffield Weds	15	5	2	8	-10	17
15	QPR	15	4	4	7	-9	16
16	Blackburn	15	4	4	7	-12	16
17	Stoke	15	2	8	5	-7	14
18	Reading	16	1	8	7	-9	11
19	Brentford	15	1	7	7	-7	10
20	Bolton	15	2	4	9	-16	10
21	Millwall	15	1	4	10	-13	7
22	Wigan	16	1	3	12	-17	6
23	Rotherham	15	0	5	10	-17	5
24	Ipswich	15	1	2	12	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.