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Bundesliga

Referee: Manuel Gräfe

Dortmund

S S S S T

4–1

Full-time

Stuttgart

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Stuttgart

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,5

3,7

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

2,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 46%

69%

23%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 81%

85%

77%

Both score Ø 66%

69%

62%

Average goals

4,2

3,7

Scored

2,8

1,3

Conceded

1,4

2,4

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

70% Possession 30%

14 Shots 8

9 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 4

8 Offside 6

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · Stuttgart 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	13	1	0	+37	40
2	Dortmund	13	9	2	2	+18	29
3	Wolfsburg	13	7	3	3	+8	24
4	M'gladbach	14	7	2	5	+6	23
5	Hertha	14	7	2	5	+1	23
6	Hamburg	14	6	3	5	-1	21
7	Mainz	14	6	2	6	+0	20
8	Leverkusen	13	6	2	5	+0	20
9	Schalke 04	13	6	2	5	-2	20
10	FC Koln	14	5	5	4	-3	20
11	FC Ingolstadt 04	14	5	4	5	-4	19
12	Darmstadt	14	3	6	5	-5	15
13	Ein Frankfurt	14	3	5	6	-4	14
14	Hannover	14	4	2	8	-7	14
15	Werder Bremen	14	4	1	9	-14	13
16	Stuttgart	13	3	1	9	-14	10
17	Augsburg	13	2	3	8	-8	9
18	Hoffenheim	14	1	6	7	-8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	8	0	0	+27	24
2	Wolfsburg	7	6	1	0	+15	19
3	Dortmund	6	5	1	0	+14	16
4	Hertha	6	4	1	1	+4	13
5	M'gladbach	7	4	1	2	+3	13
6	Mainz	8	4	0	4	+0	12
7	Schalke 04	7	3	2	2	-1	11
8	Leverkusen	6	3	1	2	+1	10
9	FC Koln	7	2	4	1	+1	10
10	Hamburg	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	FC Ingolstadt 04	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Darmstadt	8	1	4	3	-4	7
13	Ein Frankfurt	6	1	3	2	-2	6
14	Hannover	7	2	0	5	-3	6
15	Stuttgart	7	2	0	5	-9	6
16	Hoffenheim	7	0	4	3	-4	4
17	Augsburg	7	1	1	5	-5	4
18	Werder Bremen	7	1	0	6	-11	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+10	16
2	Dortmund	7	4	1	2	+4	13
3	Hamburg	8	4	1	3	-2	13
4	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	3	3	2	-2	12
5	M'gladbach	7	3	1	3	+3	10
6	Leverkusen	7	3	1	3	-1	10
7	Werder Bremen	7	3	1	3	-3	10
8	Hertha	8	3	1	4	-3	10
9	FC Koln	7	3	1	3	-4	10
10	Schalke 04	6	3	0	3	-1	9
11	Mainz	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	Darmstadt	6	2	2	2	-1	8
13	Ein Frankfurt	8	2	2	4	-2	8
14	Hannover	7	2	2	3	-4	8
15	Augsburg	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Hoffenheim	7	1	2	4	-4	5
17	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	-7	5
18	Stuttgart	6	1	1	4	-5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.