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Bundesliga
Referee: Felix Brych
Dortmund
U T S S S
3–2
Full-time
Schalke 04
S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Schalke 04
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
4,0
2,5
Scored
2,3
1,2
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,2
This season — Bundesliga · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 64%
73%
55%
Points per game
2,4
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
82%
55%
Both score Ø 55%
64%
45%
Average goals
4,1
2,5
Scored
2,9
1,3
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

62% Possession 38%
14 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 3
1 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Dortmund 2. · Schalke 04 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 12 11 1 0 +33 34
2 Dortmund 11 8 2 1 +19 26
3 Wolfsburg 12 6 3 3 +2 21
4 Hertha 12 6 2 4 +2 20
5 Schalke 04 11 6 2 3 +1 20
6 M'gladbach 12 6 1 5 +5 19
7 FC Koln 12 5 3 4 -3 18
8 Leverkusen 12 5 2 5 -2 17
9 Mainz 12 5 1 6 -1 16
10 FC Ingolstadt 04 12 4 4 4 -2 16
11 Hamburg 12 4 3 5 -5 15
12 Ein Frankfurt 12 3 5 4 -1 14
13 Darmstadt 12 3 5 4 -3 14
14 Hannover 12 3 2 7 -10 11
15 Werder Bremen 11 3 1 7 -7 10
16 Stuttgart 12 3 1 8 -10 10
17 Hoffenheim 12 1 5 6 -7 8
18 Augsburg 11 1 3 7 -11 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dortmund Schalke 04
1–0 S. Kagawa
M. Ginter
30′
33′
K. Huntelaar 1–1
L. Sané
38′
🟨 Leon Goretzka
2–1 M. Ginter
H. Mkhitaryan
43′
Half-time 2–1
46′
🟨 Junior Caiçara
3–1 P. Aubameyang
G. Castro
47′
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 🟨
48′
56′
🔁 E. Choupo-Moting
↦ M. Meyer
60′
🟨 Franco di Santo
69′
🔁 P. Højbjerg
↦ S. Kolašinac
71′
K. Huntelaar 3–2
Marcel Schmelzer 🟨
82′
S. Bender 🔁
↦ G. Castro
87′
Julian Weigl 🟨
89′
89′
🔁 F. Platte
↦ R. Neustädter
90′
🟨 Felix Platte
A. Ramos 🔁
↦ P. Aubameyang
94′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Dortmund

38 R. Bürki G
15 M. Hummels D
25 S. Papastathopoulos D
29 M. Schmelzer D
28 M. Ginter D
23 S. Kagawa M
10 H. Mkhitaryan M
8 I. Gündogan M
27 G. Castro M
33 J. Weigl M
17 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (7)
6 S. Bender
20 A. Ramos
1 R. Weidenfeller
3 Joo-Ho Park
7 J. Hofmann
9 A. Januzaj
26 Ł. Piszczek

Schalke 04

1 R. Fährmann G
3 Júnior Caiçara D
32 J. Matip D
6 S. Kolašinac D
15 D. Aogo M
33 R. Neustädter D
8 L. Goretzka M
7 M. Meyer M
19 L. Sané F
25 K. Huntelaar F
9 F. Di Santo F
Bench (7)
13 E. Choupo-Moting
23 P. Højbjerg
36 F. Platte
2 M. Friedrich
24 K. Ayhan
27 S. Riether
30 M. Gspurning

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Felix Brych · 71 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.