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Bundesliga

Referee: Marco Fritz

Leverkusen

S S T T T

1–0

Full-time

Mainz

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

40%

60%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 40%

20%

60%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,6

1,8

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

40%

60%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 40%

20%

60%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,6

1,8

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%

20 Shots 3

6 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 13. · Mainz 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	6	0	0	+17	18
2	Dortmund	5	5	0	0	+15	15
3	Wolfsburg	6	3	2	1	+2	11
4	Schalke 04	5	3	1	1	+2	10
5	Hertha	6	3	1	2	+0	10
6	Hamburg	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	FC Koln	6	3	1	2	-2	10
8	FC Ingolstadt 04	6	3	1	2	-2	10
9	Mainz	5	3	0	2	+4	9
10	Darmstadt	6	2	3	1	-1	9
11	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	2	1	+6	8
12	Werder Bremen	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Leverkusen	5	2	0	3	-5	6
14	Augsburg	5	1	1	3	-1	4
15	Hoffenheim	5	0	1	4	-6	1
16	Hannover	5	0	1	4	-8	1
17	Stuttgart	5	0	0	5	-8	0
18	M'gladbach	5	0	0	5	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+9	9
3	Wolfsburg	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Hertha	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	FC Koln	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Mainz	3	2	0	1	+4	6
7	Darmstadt	4	1	2	1	-2	5
8	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+4	4
9	Schalke 04	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Hamburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	+0	3
13	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	3	0	1	2	-5	1
15	Hannover	2	0	0	2	-3	0
16	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Stuttgart	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	FC Ingolstadt 04	3	3	0	0	+3	9
2	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Hamburg	4	2	0	2	-2	6
6	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	1	1	+2	4
7	Werder Bremen	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Darmstadt	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Mainz	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Hertha	3	1	0	2	-3	3
11	FC Koln	3	1	0	2	-4	3
12	Leverkusen	3	1	0	2	-5	3
13	Wolfsburg	3	0	2	1	-4	2
14	Augsburg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Hoffenheim	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Hannover	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Stuttgart	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	M'gladbach	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.