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Bundesliga

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

Stuttgart

U T T T T

1–3

Full-time

Mainz

S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

2,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+0,0

This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 35%

28%

41%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

72%

53%

Both score Ø 60%

66%

53%

Average goals

3,7

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

53% Possession 47%

8 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 11

1 Blocked shots 3

8 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 9

1 Offside 5

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stuttgart 17. · Mainz 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	26	4	2	+60	82
2	Dortmund	32	24	5	3	+49	77
3	Leverkusen	32	17	6	9	+16	57
4	M'gladbach	32	15	4	13	+14	49
5	Hertha	32	14	7	11	+1	49
6	Schalke 04	32	14	6	12	-1	48
7	Mainz	32	13	7	12	+2	46
8	FC Koln	32	10	11	11	-4	41
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	32	10	10	12	-7	40
10	Wolfsburg	32	10	9	13	-5	39
11	Hamburg	32	10	8	14	-7	38
12	Augsburg	32	9	10	13	-8	37
13	Hoffenheim	32	9	10	13	-11	37
14	Darmstadt	32	8	11	13	-14	35
15	Werder Bremen	32	9	7	16	-16	34
16	Ein Frankfurt	32	8	9	15	-18	33
17	Stuttgart	32	9	6	17	-21	33
18	Hannover	32	6	4	22	-30	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	16	14	2	0	+35	44
2	Bayern Munich	16	14	1	1	+41	43
3	M'gladbach	16	12	1	3	+23	37
4	Hertha	16	9	5	2	+10	32
5	Leverkusen	16	9	3	4	+13	30
6	Wolfsburg	16	8	5	3	+13	29
7	Schalke 04	16	8	4	4	+4	28
8	Mainz	16	8	3	5	+5	27
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	16	7	5	4	+5	26
10	Hoffenheim	16	6	6	4	+0	24
11	Ein Frankfurt	16	5	6	5	-3	21
12	Hamburg	16	5	4	7	-2	19
13	FC Koln	16	5	4	7	-2	19
14	Stuttgart	16	6	1	9	-8	19
15	Werder Bremen	16	4	5	7	-4	17
16	Augsburg	16	3	6	7	-7	15
17	Darmstadt	16	2	6	8	-12	12
18	Hannover	16	3	0	13	-16	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	12	3	1	+19	39
2	Dortmund	16	10	3	3	+14	33
3	Leverkusen	16	8	3	5	+3	27
4	Darmstadt	16	6	5	5	-2	23
5	Augsburg	16	6	4	6	-1	22
6	FC Koln	16	5	7	4	-2	22
7	Schalke 04	16	6	2	8	-5	20
8	Mainz	16	5	4	7	-3	19
9	Hamburg	16	5	4	7	-5	19
10	Hertha	16	5	2	9	-9	17
11	Werder Bremen	16	5	2	9	-12	17
12	FC Ingolstadt 04	16	3	5	8	-12	14
13	Stuttgart	16	3	5	8	-13	14
14	Hoffenheim	16	3	4	9	-11	13
15	Hannover	16	3	4	9	-14	13
16	M'gladbach	16	3	3	10	-9	12
17	Ein Frankfurt	16	3	3	10	-15	12
18	Wolfsburg	16	2	4	10	-18	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.