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Bundesliga

Referee: Patrick Ittrich

Mainz

S S U T U

4–2

Full-time

Augsburg

U T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Augsburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 33%

44%

22%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

52%

56%

Both score Ø 54%

48%

59%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

50% Possession 50%

19 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 7. · Augsburg 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	27	22	3	2	+52	69
2	Dortmund	27	20	4	3	+38	64
3	Hertha	27	14	6	7	+10	48
4	Leverkusen	28	13	6	9	+9	45
5	Schalke 04	27	13	5	9	+4	44
6	M'gladbach	27	13	3	11	+10	42
7	Mainz	27	12	5	10	+2	41
8	Wolfsburg	28	10	8	10	+2	38
9	FC Koln	27	8	9	10	-6	33
10	FC Ingolstadt 04	27	8	9	10	-8	33
11	Stuttgart	27	9	5	13	-11	32
12	Hamburg	27	8	7	12	-7	31
13	Darmstadt	27	6	10	11	-13	28
14	Werder Bremen	27	7	7	13	-18	28
15	Augsburg	27	6	9	12	-10	27
16	Hoffenheim	27	6	9	12	-13	27
17	Ein Frankfurt	27	6	9	12	-14	27
18	Hannover	27	5	2	20	-27	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	12	0	1	+37	36
2	Dortmund	13	11	2	0	+27	35
3	M'gladbach	14	10	1	3	+16	31
4	Hertha	14	9	4	1	+12	31
5	Wolfsburg	14	8	4	2	+15	28
6	Schalke 04	14	8	3	3	+5	27
7	Leverkusen	14	7	3	4	+9	24
8	Mainz	13	7	2	4	+4	23
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	13	5	4	4	+1	19
10	Stuttgart	14	6	1	7	-3	19
11	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	6	4	-2	18
12	Hoffenheim	13	4	5	4	-2	17
13	Hamburg	14	4	4	6	-2	16
14	FC Koln	14	4	4	6	-3	16
15	Augsburg	14	2	5	7	-8	11
16	Werder Bremen	13	2	5	6	-8	11
17	Darmstadt	13	1	5	7	-13	8
18	Hannover	13	2	0	11	-13	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	3	1	+15	33
2	Dortmund	14	9	2	3	+11	29
3	Leverkusen	14	6	3	5	+0	21
4	Darmstadt	14	5	5	4	+0	20
5	Mainz	14	5	3	6	-2	18
6	Schalke 04	13	5	2	6	-1	17
7	Hertha	13	5	2	6	-2	17
8	FC Koln	13	4	5	4	-3	17
9	Werder Bremen	14	5	2	7	-10	17
10	Augsburg	13	4	4	5	-2	16
11	Hamburg	13	4	3	6	-5	15
12	FC Ingolstadt 04	14	3	5	6	-9	14
13	Stuttgart	13	3	4	6	-8	13
14	M'gladbach	13	3	2	8	-6	11
15	Hannover	14	3	2	9	-14	11
16	Hoffenheim	14	2	4	8	-11	10
17	Wolfsburg	14	2	4	8	-13	10
18	Ein Frankfurt	13	2	3	8	-12	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.