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Bundesliga
Referee: Tobias Welz
FC Koln
U S S U U
2–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC Koln FC Ingolstadt 04
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
2,0
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,2
2,5
Scored
1,7
0,5
Conceded
0,5
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-1,5
This season — Bundesliga · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
2,0
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,2
2,5
Scored
1,7
0,5
Conceded
0,5
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

60% Possession 40%
15 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 3
3 Offside 1
27 Free kicks against 24
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match FC Koln 4. · FC Ingolstadt 04 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 6 5 1 0 +14 16
2 Hertha 7 4 2 1 +4 14
3 Dortmund 7 4 1 2 +10 13
4 FC Koln 6 3 3 0 +7 12
5 RB Leipzig 6 3 3 0 +6 12
6 Leverkusen 6 3 1 2 +3 10
7 Hoffenheim 6 2 4 0 +2 10
8 Ein Frankfurt 6 3 1 2 +2 10
9 M'gladbach 6 3 1 2 +0 10
10 Freiburg 6 3 0 3 -2 9
11 Mainz 6 2 2 2 +1 8
12 Augsburg 6 2 1 3 -3 7
13 Wolfsburg 6 1 3 2 -3 6
14 Darmstadt 6 1 2 3 -8 5
15 Werder Bremen 6 1 1 4 -10 4
16 Schalke 04 6 1 0 5 -4 3
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 6 0 1 5 -9 1
18 Hamburg 6 0 1 5 -10 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

FC Koln FC Ingolstadt 04
1–0 A. Modeste
Y. Ōsako
28′
Matthias Lehmann 🟨
32′
2–0 A. Modeste
39′
45′
🟨 Markus Suttner
Half-time 2–0
58′
🔁 M. Leckie
↦ S. Lex
66′
🔁 D. Lezcano
↦ Roger
L. Bittencourt 🔁
↦ K. Rausch
72′
Marco Höger 🟨
75′
A. Rudņevs 🔁
↦ Y. Ōsako
75′
75′
🔁 A. Morales
↦ M. Hartmann
Frederik Sørensen 🟨
85′
S. Özcan 🔁
↦ M. Höger
86′
87′
🟨 Lukas Hinterseer
90′
🟨 Tobias Levels
90′
L. Hinterseer 2–1
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

FC Koln

4-4-2
1 T. Horn G
15 M. Mavraj D
34 K. Rausch D
14 J. Hector M
4 F. Sørensen D
3 D. Heintz D
33 M. Lehmann M
7 M. Risse M
6 M. Höger M
27 A. Modeste F
13 Y. Ōsako F
Bench (7)
21 L. Bittencourt
9 A. Rudņevs
20 S. Özcan
11 S. Zoller
16 P. Olkowski
19 S. Guirassy
35 S. Müller

Coach: P. Stöger

FC Ingolstadt 04

4-1-4-1
1 Ø. Nyland G
28 T. Levels D
34 M. Matip D
29 M. Suttner D
32 M. Tisserand D
8 Roger M
36 A. Cohen M
10 P. Groß F
9 M. Hartmann F
16 L. Hinterseer F
14 S. Lex F
Bench (7)
7 M. Leckie
11 D. Lezcano
6 A. Morales
18 R. Brégerie
19 M. Christiansen
33 F. Hadergjonaj
35 M. Hansen

Coach: M. Kauczinski

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Tobias Welz · 53 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
18,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.