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Ligue 1

Referee: Sebastien Moreira

Guingamp

U T S T T

1–0

Full-time

Lille

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guingamp Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 32%

38%

25%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

38%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

63%

Average goals

2,1

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

13 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 0

2 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 21

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guingamp 10. · Lille 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	9	7	2	0	+11	23
2	Paris SG	9	6	1	2	+12	19
3	Monaco	9	6	1	2	+11	19
4	Toulouse	9	5	2	2	+7	17
5	Lyon	9	4	1	4	+4	13
6	Bordeaux	8	4	1	3	+1	13
7	Rennes	8	4	1	3	-1	13
8	Metz	8	4	1	3	-6	13
9	St Etienne	8	3	3	2	+2	12
10	Guingamp	8	3	2	3	+1	11
11	Bastia	8	3	1	4	+0	10
12	Angers	8	3	1	4	-1	10
13	Caen	8	3	1	4	-7	10
14	Marseille	8	2	3	3	+0	9
15	Dijon	8	2	2	4	-2	8
16	Nantes	8	2	2	4	-4	8
17	Montpellier	8	1	4	3	-6	7
18	Lille	8	2	1	5	-6	7
19	Lorient	8	2	0	6	-8	6
20	Nancy	9	1	2	6	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	6	5	1	0	+9	16
2	Toulouse	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Rennes	4	4	0	0	+6	12
4	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+8	10
5	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+6	10
6	St Etienne	4	3	1	0	+5	10
7	Lyon	4	3	0	1	+6	9
8	Caen	4	3	0	1	-2	9
9	Dijon	5	2	2	1	+4	8
10	Marseille	4	2	2	0	+3	8
11	Angers	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Guingamp	3	2	1	0	+2	7
13	Bordeaux	4	2	1	1	+1	7
14	Bastia	4	2	1	1	+1	7
15	Lille	4	2	0	2	-2	6
16	Lorient	4	2	0	2	-3	6
17	Metz	4	2	0	2	-7	6
18	Montpellier	4	1	2	1	+0	5
19	Nantes	4	1	1	2	-3	4
20	Nancy	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	5	3	0	2	+5	9
2	Paris SG	5	3	0	2	+4	9
3	Nice	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Metz	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Bordeaux	4	2	0	2	+0	6
6	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-1	5
7	Guingamp	5	1	1	3	-1	4
8	Nantes	4	1	1	2	-1	4
9	Nancy	4	1	1	2	-1	4
10	Lyon	5	1	1	3	-2	4
11	Bastia	4	1	0	3	-1	3
12	Angers	4	1	0	3	-3	3
13	St Etienne	4	0	2	2	-3	2
14	Montpellier	4	0	2	2	-6	2
15	Marseille	4	0	1	3	-3	1
16	Lille	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Caen	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Rennes	4	0	1	3	-7	1
19	Lorient	4	0	0	4	-5	0
20	Dijon	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.