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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Orsato

Napoli

S S U S T

1–3

Full-time

Roma

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 57%

57%

Points per game

2,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

57%

86%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

57%

Average goals

2,9

3,6

Scored

2,0

2,3

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

57% Possession 43%

21 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 6

9 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 2. · Roma 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	7	6	0	1	+11	18
2	Napoli	7	4	2	1	+8	14
3	Roma	7	4	1	2	+7	13
4	Lazio	7	4	1	2	+6	13
5	Chievo	7	4	1	2	+3	13
6	Milan	7	4	1	2	+2	13
7	Torino	7	3	2	2	+5	11
8	Genoa	6	3	2	1	+3	11
9	Inter	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Cagliari	7	3	1	3	-2	10
11	Bologna	7	3	1	3	-3	10
12	Atalanta	7	3	0	4	-2	9
13	Sassuolo	7	3	0	4	-3	9
14	Fiorentina	6	2	2	2	+0	8
15	Sampdoria	7	2	1	4	-3	7
16	Udinese	7	2	1	4	-6	7
17	Pescara	7	1	3	3	-3	6
18	Palermo	7	1	3	3	-4	6
19	Empoli	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Crotone	7	0	1	6	-11	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Torino	4	3	1	0	+7	10
3	Cagliari	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Juventus	3	3	0	0	+7	9
5	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+6	9
6	Milan	4	3	0	1	+3	9
7	Bologna	4	3	0	1	+3	9
8	Chievo	3	2	1	0	+3	7
9	Fiorentina	3	2	1	0	+2	7
10	Lazio	3	2	0	1	+4	6
11	Atalanta	4	2	0	2	+0	6
12	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+0	6
13	Genoa	3	1	2	0	+2	5
14	Inter	3	1	2	0	+1	5
15	Sampdoria	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Udinese	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3
18	Pescara	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Crotone	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Palermo	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	4	3	0	1	+4	9
2	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+2	7
3	Palermo	4	1	3	0	+1	6
4	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Inter	4	2	0	2	+0	6
6	Chievo	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Napoli	4	1	2	1	+2	5
8	Pescara	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Milan	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	-2	3
11	Sassuolo	4	1	0	3	-3	3
12	Sampdoria	4	1	0	3	-3	3
13	Udinese	3	1	0	2	-4	3
14	Fiorentina	3	0	1	2	-2	1
15	Torino	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Roma	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Empoli	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-6	1
19	Cagliari	3	0	0	3	-7	0
20	Crotone	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.