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Bundesliga
Referee: Harm Osmers
Freiburg
T
3–1
Full-time
M'gladbach
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg M'gladbach
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
1,0
1,7
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,7
This season — Bundesliga · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

34% Possession 66%
18 Shots 5
7 Shots on target 2
7 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 4
1 Offside 3
17 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Freiburg 12. · M'gladbach 6. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 2 2 0 0 +8 6
2 Wolfsburg 1 1 0 0 +2 3
3 FC Koln 1 1 0 0 +2 3
4 Hertha 1 1 0 0 +1 3
5 Dortmund 1 1 0 0 +1 3
6 M'gladbach 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Ein Frankfurt 1 1 0 0 +1 3
8 Hoffenheim 1 0 1 0 +0 1
9 RB Leipzig 1 0 1 0 +0 1
10 Hamburg 1 0 1 0 +0 1
11 FC Ingolstadt 04 1 0 1 0 +0 1
12 Freiburg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
13 Mainz 1 0 0 1 -1 0
14 Leverkusen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
15 Augsburg 1 0 0 1 -2 0
16 Darmstadt 1 0 0 1 -2 0
17 Schalke 04 2 0 0 2 -3 0
18 Werder Bremen 1 0 0 1 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Freiburg M'gladbach
35′
⚽ T. Hazard 0–1
I. Traoré
Half-time 0–1
51′
🟨 Raffael
1–1 M. Philipp ⚽
V. Grifo
54′
J. Haberer 🔁
↦ M. Frantz
68′
70′
🔁 J. Vestergaard
↦ T. Hazard
70′
🔁 A. Hahn
↦ Raffael
Janik Haberer 🟨
76′
77′
🔁 P. Herrmann
↦ N. Elvedi
N. Petersen 🔁
↦ F. Niederlechner
82′
2–1 M. Philipp ⚽
N. Petersen
85′
Maximilian Philipp 🟨
86′
87′
🟨 Yann Sommer
3–1 N. Petersen ⚽
88′
A. Abrashi 🔁
↦ V. Grifo
89′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Freiburg

4-1-3-2
1 A. Schwolow G
5 M. Gulde D
30 C. Günter D
15 P. Stenzel D
4 C. Söyüncü D
8 M. Frantz M
27 N. Höfler M
26 M. Philipp F
11 O. Bulut M
32 V. Grifo M
7 F. Niederlechner F
Bench (7)
19 J. Haberer
18 N. Petersen
6 A. Abrashi
2 A. Ignjovski
22 J. Meffert
24 G. Niedermeier
44 R. Gikiewicz

Coach: C. Streich

M'gladbach

3-4-1-2
1 Y. Sommer G
17 O. Wendt D
24 T. Jantschke D
5 T. Strobl M
3 A. Christensen D
30 N. Elvedi D
16 I. Traoré M
13 L. Stindl F
6 C. Kramer M
10 T. Hazard M
11 Raffael F
Bench (7)
4 J. Vestergaard
28 A. Hahn
7 P. Herrmann
8 M. Dahoud
21 T. Sippel
23 J. Hofmann
27 J. Korb

Coach: A. Schubert

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Harm Osmers · 60 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.