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Bundesliga

Referee: Daniel Siebert

Freiburg

T U T T T

2–1

Full-time

Mainz

S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

2,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,0

This season — Bundesliga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 21%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 46%

42%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

0,6

1,1

Conceded

2,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%

16 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 17. · Mainz 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	9	2	1	+22	29
2	Schalke 04	12	7	2	3	+6	23
3	RB Leipzig	12	7	2	3	+5	23
4	M'gladbach	12	6	3	3	+0	21
5	Dortmund	12	6	2	4	+13	20
6	Hoffenheim	12	5	5	2	+6	20
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	5	4	3	+2	19
8	Hannover	13	5	4	4	+0	19
9	Leverkusen	12	4	5	3	+7	17
10	Stuttgart	13	5	2	6	-3	17
11	Augsburg	12	4	4	4	+2	16
12	Mainz	12	4	3	5	-4	15
13	Wolfsburg	12	2	8	2	-1	14
14	Hertha	12	3	5	4	-3	14
15	Hamburg	12	3	1	8	-10	10
16	Werder Bremen	12	1	5	6	-6	8
17	Freiburg	12	1	5	6	-17	8
18	FC Koln	12	0	2	10	-19	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+16	16
2	Stuttgart	6	5	1	0	+7	16
3	Schalke 04	7	4	2	1	+5	14
4	RB Leipzig	5	4	1	0	+6	13
5	Mainz	7	4	1	2	+3	13
6	Leverkusen	6	3	3	0	+8	12
7	Hoffenheim	7	3	3	1	+3	12
8	Hannover	6	3	2	1	+4	11
9	Hertha	7	3	2	2	+0	11
10	M'gladbach	6	3	1	2	-1	10
11	Dortmund	5	3	0	2	+9	9
12	Augsburg	6	2	2	2	+2	8
13	Wolfsburg	7	1	5	1	-1	8
14	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	1	2	+0	7
15	Freiburg	6	1	4	1	+0	7
16	Hamburg	6	2	1	3	-3	7
17	Werder Bremen	6	1	1	4	-4	4
18	FC Koln	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	4	1	1	+6	13
2	Ein Frankfurt	7	3	3	1	+2	12
3	Dortmund	7	3	2	2	+4	11
4	M'gladbach	6	3	2	1	+1	11
5	RB Leipzig	7	3	1	3	-1	10
6	Schalke 04	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	Hoffenheim	5	2	2	1	+3	8
8	Augsburg	6	2	2	2	+0	8
9	Hannover	7	2	2	3	-4	8
10	Wolfsburg	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Leverkusen	6	1	2	3	-1	5
12	Werder Bremen	6	0	4	2	-2	4
13	Hertha	5	0	3	2	-3	3
14	Hamburg	6	1	0	5	-7	3
15	Mainz	5	0	2	3	-7	2
16	Stuttgart	7	0	1	6	-10	1
17	FC Koln	7	0	1	6	-12	1
18	Freiburg	6	0	1	5	-17	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.