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Bundesliga
Referee: Markus Schmidt
Dortmund
S S T S T
4–0
Full-time
Leverkusen
S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,8
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,2
This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches
Win Ø 47%
47%
47%
Points per game
1,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
60%
57%
Both score Ø 59%
57%
60%
Average goals
3,3
3,1
Scored
1,9
1,8
Conceded
1,4
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%
17 Shots 10
9 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 6
3 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 14
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Dortmund 4. · Leverkusen 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 31 25 3 3 +62 78
2 Schalke 04 30 16 7 7 +14 55
3 Leverkusen 30 14 9 7 +18 51
4 Dortmund 30 14 9 7 +16 51
5 Hoffenheim 31 13 10 8 +16 49
6 RB Leipzig 31 13 8 10 +0 47
7 Ein Frankfurt 31 13 7 11 +1 46
8 M'gladbach 31 12 7 12 -6 43
9 Hertha 31 10 12 9 +3 42
10 Stuttgart 31 12 6 13 -6 42
11 Augsburg 30 9 10 11 -2 37
12 Werder Bremen 31 9 10 12 -4 37
13 Hannover 31 9 9 13 -9 36
14 Wolfsburg 31 5 15 11 -10 30
15 Mainz 30 7 9 14 -15 30
16 Freiburg 31 6 12 13 -25 30
17 Hamburg 31 6 7 18 -24 25
18 FC Koln 30 5 6 19 -29 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dortmund Leverkusen
1–0 J. Sancho
C. Pulisic
13′
42′
🔁 T. Jedvaj
↦ J. Tah
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 K. Havertz
↦ L. Bailey
2–0 M. Reus
M. Götze
55′
3–0 M. Philipp
J. Sancho
63′
69′
🔁 K. Bellarabi
↦ L. Alario
M. Dahoud 🔁
↦ C. Pulisic
72′
4–0 M. Reus
J. Sancho
79′
J. Toljan 🔁
↦ M. Philipp
81′
Sergio Gómez 🔁
↦ M. Reus
86′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Dortmund

4-3-3
38 R. Bürki G
26 Ł. Piszczek D
25 S. Papastathopoulos D
36 Ö. Toprak D
16 M. Akanji D
10 M. Götze M
33 J. Weigl M
22 C. Pulisic M
7 J. Sancho F
11 M. Reus M
20 M. Philipp F
Bench (7)
19 M. Dahoud
15 J. Toljan
34 Sergio Gómez
1 R. Weidenfeller
8 N. Şahin
9 A. Yarmolenko
27 G. Castro

Coach: P. Stöger

Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
28 R. Özcan G
5 S. Bender D
4 J. Tah D
39 B. Henrichs D
3 P. Retsos D
20 C. Aránguiz M
21 D. Kohr M
31 K. Volland F
13 L. Alario F
10 J. Brandt M
9 L. Bailey M
Bench (7)
16 T. Jedvaj
29 K. Havertz
38 K. Bellarabi
11 S. Kießling
15 J. Baumgartlinger
36 N. Lomb
37 M. Frey

Coach: H. Herrlich

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Markus Schmidt · 41 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.