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La Liga

Referee: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez

Villarreal

S S S S T

1–2

Full-time

Celta

U S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,8

2,2

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

This season — La Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 64%

71%

57%

Points per game

2,3

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

43%

71%

Both score Ø 64%

57%

71%

Average goals

2,4

3,1

Scored

1,7

2,1

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

32% Possession 68%

12 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 3. · Celta 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	5	3	0	+16	18
2	Barcelona	8	6	0	2	+6	18
3	Villarreal	7	5	1	1	+7	16
4	Celta	7	4	3	0	+8	15
5	Ath Madrid	7	4	1	2	+6	13
6	Eibar	8	3	4	1	+4	13
7	La Coruna	7	3	3	1	+5	12
8	Valencia	8	3	3	2	+2	12
9	Espanol	8	4	0	4	-7	12
10	Betis	8	3	2	3	-4	11
11	Sevilla	8	2	3	3	-4	9
12	Sp Gijon	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Ath Bilbao	7	2	1	4	-2	7
14	Getafe	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Vallecano	8	2	1	5	-9	7
16	Sociedad	7	1	3	3	-1	6
17	Malaga	8	1	3	4	-4	6
18	Levante	8	1	3	4	-9	6
19	Las Palmas	7	1	2	4	-3	5
20	Granada	7	1	1	5	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Real Madrid	4	3	1	0	+9	10
3	Villarreal	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Celta	4	2	2	0	+6	8
5	Valencia	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Ath Madrid	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Getafe	3	2	0	1	+3	6
8	Ath Bilbao	4	2	0	2	+2	6
9	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	-2	6
10	Espanol	4	2	0	2	-5	6
11	Malaga	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Levante	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Eibar	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	La Coruna	3	1	1	1	+2	4
15	Las Palmas	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Betis	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Vallecano	4	1	1	2	-3	4
18	Sociedad	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Sp Gijon	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Granada	4	0	1	3	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	4	2	2	0	+7	8
2	Eibar	4	2	2	0	+4	8
3	La Coruna	4	2	2	0	+3	8
4	Celta	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Villarreal	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Sp Gijon	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Betis	4	2	1	1	-2	7
8	Ath Madrid	3	2	0	1	+4	6
9	Espanol	4	2	0	2	-2	6
10	Barcelona	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Sociedad	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	Valencia	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Granada	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Sevilla	4	0	3	1	-2	3
15	Vallecano	4	1	0	3	-6	3
16	Las Palmas	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Ath Bilbao	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Malaga	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Levante	4	0	1	3	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.