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La Liga
Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
Malaga
U T U T
0–1
Full-time
Villarreal
U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Malaga Villarreal
Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 38%
0%
75%
Points per game
0,5
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
0%
75%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
0,5
3,5
Scored
0,0
2,5
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,5
This season — La Liga · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 38%
0%
75%
Points per game
0,5
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
0%
75%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
0,5
3,5
Scored
0,0
2,5
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

58% Possession 42%
15 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 3
6 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 5
2 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Malaga 19. · Villarreal 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 5 4 1 0 +13 13
2 Celta 5 4 1 0 +8 13
3 Ath Madrid 5 4 0 1 +7 12
4 Barcelona 5 4 0 1 +3 12
5 Villarreal 4 3 1 0 +6 10
6 Espanol 5 3 0 2 -5 9
7 Eibar 5 2 2 1 +2 8
8 Vallecano 5 2 1 2 -3 7
9 Valencia 5 1 3 1 +0 6
10 La Coruna 4 1 2 1 +1 5
11 Sociedad 5 1 2 2 +1 5
12 Sp Gijon 5 1 2 2 -1 5
13 Betis 4 1 2 1 -4 5
14 Ath Bilbao 5 1 0 4 -4 3
15 Levante 5 0 3 2 -4 3
16 Getafe 5 1 0 4 -5 3
17 Granada 5 1 0 4 -7 3
18 Las Palmas 4 0 2 2 -2 2
19 Malaga 4 0 2 2 -2 2
20 Sevilla 4 0 2 2 -4 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Malaga Villarreal
10′
🔁 N. Leiva
↦ Adrián
17′
🟨 Jonathan dos Santos
Recio 🟨
39′
Half-time 0–0
D. Čop 🔁
↦ J. Añor
55′
Arthur Boka 🟨
61′
62′
🔁 Bruno
↦ Tomás Pina
67′
🟨 Eric Bailly
68′
🔁 Trigueros
↦ J. dos Santos
71′
F. Tissone 1–0
own goal
A. Tighadouini 🔁
↦ Ricardo Horta
76′
79′
🟨 Denis Suárez
Juan Carlos 🔁
↦ A. Boka
89′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Malaga

1 C. Kameni
19 A. Boka D
3 Weligton D
18 R. Rosales D
15 M. Angeleri D
12 F. Tissone M
17 Duda M
14 Recio M
28 J. Añor M
9 Charles F
10 Ricardo Horta M
Bench (7)
20 D. Čop
22 A. Tighadouini
7 Juan Carlos
2 Albentosa
8 Fábio Espinho
13 G. Ochoa
23 Miguel Torres

Villarreal

13 A. Areola G
3 B. Jokić M
22 A. Rukavina D
2 Mario Gaspar D
24 E. Bailly D
8 J. dos Santos M
4 Tomás Pina M
18 Denis Suárez M
7 Samu M
20 Adrián
10 Léo Baptistão F
Bench (7)
26 N. Leiva
21 Bruno
14 Trigueros
11 Jaume Costa
19 Samu Castillejo
25 M. Barbosa
44 Pablo Íñiguez

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.