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La Liga

Referee: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez

Villarreal

S S T T S

3–1

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,7

This season — La Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 49%

47%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

33%

57%

Both score Ø 49%

40%

57%

Average goals

2,2

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,2

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%

10 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

4 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 16

6 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Ath Bilbao 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	29	22	5	2	+48	71
2	Barcelona	30	21	6	3	+62	69
3	Ath Madrid	30	18	7	5	+32	61
4	Sevilla	30	17	7	6	+15	58
5	Villarreal	30	14	9	7	+19	51
6	Ath Bilbao	30	15	5	10	+6	50
7	Sociedad	30	15	4	11	+2	49
8	Eibar	30	13	8	9	+8	47
9	Espanol	30	11	10	9	+0	43
10	Celta	29	12	5	12	-4	41
11	Alaves	30	10	10	10	-8	40
12	Valencia	30	10	6	14	-9	36
13	Las Palmas	30	9	8	13	-5	35
14	Betis	30	8	7	15	-15	31
15	Malaga	30	7	9	14	-13	30
16	La Coruna	30	6	10	14	-15	28
17	Leganes	30	6	9	15	-21	27
18	Sp Gijon	30	5	7	18	-27	22
19	Granada	30	4	8	18	-36	20
20	Osasuna	30	2	8	20	-39	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	15	12	3	0	+25	39
2	Barcelona	15	11	3	1	+35	36
3	Ath Bilbao	16	11	3	2	+13	36
4	Ath Madrid	15	11	2	2	+21	35
5	Sevilla	14	10	3	1	+13	33
6	Eibar	16	9	3	4	+8	30
7	Las Palmas	15	8	5	2	+13	29
8	Celta	14	9	1	4	+7	28
9	Villarreal	15	8	3	4	+12	27
10	Espanol	15	7	5	3	+8	26
11	Sociedad	15	7	4	4	+2	25
12	Valencia	15	7	3	5	+0	24
13	Betis	16	5	6	5	-1	21
14	La Coruna	15	5	5	5	+4	20
15	Malaga	14	6	2	6	+0	20
16	Alaves	15	4	7	4	-6	19
17	Granada	14	4	4	6	-3	16
18	Leganes	15	3	5	7	-7	14
19	Sp Gijon	15	4	2	9	-12	14
20	Osasuna	15	0	5	10	-18	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	10	3	2	+27	33
2	Real Madrid	14	10	2	2	+23	32
3	Ath Madrid	15	7	5	3	+11	26
4	Sevilla	16	7	4	5	+2	25
5	Villarreal	15	6	6	3	+7	24
6	Sociedad	15	8	0	7	+0	24
7	Alaves	15	6	3	6	-2	21
8	Eibar	14	4	5	5	+0	17
9	Espanol	15	4	5	6	-8	17
10	Ath Bilbao	14	4	2	8	-7	14
11	Celta	15	3	4	8	-11	13
12	Leganes	15	3	4	8	-14	13
13	Valencia	15	3	3	9	-9	12
14	Malaga	16	1	7	8	-13	10
15	Betis	14	3	1	10	-14	10
16	Osasuna	15	2	3	10	-21	9
17	Sp Gijon	15	1	5	9	-15	8
18	La Coruna	15	1	5	9	-19	8
19	Las Palmas	15	1	3	11	-18	6
20	Granada	16	0	4	12	-33	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.