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La Liga

Referee: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes

Villarreal

U S T T U

2–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

This season — La Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 38%

19%

56%

Points per game

0,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

44%

Both score Ø 47%

56%

38%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

46% Possession 54%

12 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 18. · Real Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	11	4	2	+29	37
2	Ath Madrid	17	9	7	1	+13	34
3	Sevilla	17	9	5	3	+13	32
4	Real Madrid	16	9	2	5	+5	29
5	Alaves	17	8	4	5	+2	28
6	Betis	17	7	5	5	+1	26
7	Getafe	17	6	7	4	+5	25
8	Valencia	17	4	10	3	+1	22
9	Girona	17	5	7	5	-2	22
10	Levante	17	6	4	7	-4	22
11	Celta	17	5	6	6	+2	21
12	Valladolid	17	5	6	6	-3	21
13	Eibar	17	5	6	6	-4	21
14	Espanol	17	6	3	8	-6	21
15	Sociedad	17	5	4	8	-2	19
16	Leganes	17	4	7	6	-4	19
17	Ath Bilbao	17	2	10	5	-8	16
18	Villarreal	16	3	6	7	-4	15
19	Vallecano	17	3	4	10	-15	13
20	Huesca	17	1	5	11	-19	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	9	7	2	0	+12	23
2	Barcelona	9	6	2	1	+18	20
3	Real Madrid	8	6	1	1	+10	19
4	Sevilla	8	6	1	1	+7	19
5	Alaves	8	4	4	0	+4	16
6	Eibar	9	4	3	2	+3	15
7	Betis	9	4	3	2	+1	15
8	Espanol	8	5	0	3	-1	15
9	Celta	9	3	4	2	+5	13
10	Getafe	8	4	1	3	+4	13
11	Leganes	8	3	4	1	+2	13
12	Valencia	9	2	6	1	+3	12
13	Ath Bilbao	9	2	5	2	-3	11
14	Girona	9	2	4	3	-3	10
15	Levante	8	3	1	4	-6	10
16	Vallecano	9	2	3	4	-7	9
17	Valladolid	8	2	2	4	-3	8
18	Villarreal	8	1	3	4	-3	6
19	Sociedad	8	1	3	4	-3	6
20	Huesca	8	0	4	4	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	5	2	1	+11	17
2	Sevilla	9	3	4	2	+6	13
3	Sociedad	9	4	1	4	+1	13
4	Valladolid	9	3	4	2	+0	13
5	Levante	9	3	3	3	+2	12
6	Getafe	9	2	6	1	+1	12
7	Girona	8	3	3	2	+1	12
8	Alaves	9	4	0	5	-2	12
9	Ath Madrid	8	2	5	1	+1	11
10	Betis	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	Valencia	8	2	4	2	-2	10
12	Real Madrid	8	3	1	4	-5	10
13	Villarreal	8	2	3	3	-1	9
14	Celta	8	2	2	4	-3	8
15	Espanol	9	1	3	5	-5	6
16	Leganes	9	1	3	5	-6	6
17	Eibar	8	1	3	4	-7	6
18	Ath Bilbao	8	0	5	3	-5	5
19	Vallecano	8	1	1	6	-8	4
20	Huesca	9	1	1	7	-14	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.