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La Liga

Referee: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez

Real Madrid

S S S S S

1–1

Full-time

Villarreal

T U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,7

1,8

Scored

2,8

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,2

This season — La Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,8

1,8

Scored

3,0

1,3

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

23 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 3

10 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

17 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Villarreal 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+9	12
2	Sevilla	5	3	2	0	+4	11
3	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9
4	Las Palmas	4	3	0	1	+6	9
5	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+9	8
6	Villarreal	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Eibar	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Sp Gijon	4	2	1	1	-3	7
9	Alaves	4	1	3	0	+1	6
10	Ath Bilbao	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	La Coruna	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Malaga	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Betis	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Sociedad	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Leganes	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Espanol	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Granada	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Osasuna	4	0	2	2	-5	2
19	Celta	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	Valencia	4	0	0	4	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sevilla	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Sp Gijon	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+5	4
6	Eibar	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Malaga	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Barcelona	2	1	0	1	+3	3
10	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	La Coruna	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Betis	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Alaves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Granada	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Espanol	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Osasuna	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Leganes	2	0	1	1	-4	1
19	Valencia	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Celta	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+4	4
4	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Las Palmas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Sociedad	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Eibar	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Betis	3	1	0	2	-4	3
12	Sevilla	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	La Coruna	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Malaga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Celta	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Espanol	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Osasuna	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Granada	2	0	1	1	-4	1
19	Sp Gijon	2	0	1	1	-5	1
20	Valencia	2	0	0	2	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.