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La Liga

Referee: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Villarreal

S S S T S

2–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

4,2

3,8

Scored

2,3

2,5

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,2

This season — La Liga · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 54%

49%

59%

Points per game

1,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

54%

76%

Both score Ø 57%

51%

62%

Average goals

2,8

3,6

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

38% Possession 62%

14 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

4 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Real Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	37	27	9	1	+69	90
2	Ath Madrid	37	23	9	5	+36	78
3	Real Madrid	37	22	9	6	+50	75
4	Valencia	37	21	7	9	+26	70
5	Villarreal	37	18	6	13	+7	60
6	Betis	38	18	6	14	-1	60
7	Sevilla	38	17	7	14	-9	58
8	Getafe	38	15	10	13	+9	55
9	Girona	38	14	9	15	-9	51
10	Eibar	37	14	8	15	-6	50
11	Sociedad	37	14	7	16	+8	49
12	Celta	38	13	10	15	-1	49
13	Alaves	38	15	2	21	-10	47
14	Espanol	37	11	13	13	-7	46
15	Levante	38	11	13	14	-14	46
16	Ath Bilbao	37	10	13	14	-7	43
17	Leganes	38	12	7	19	-17	43
18	La Coruna	37	6	11	20	-37	29
19	Las Palmas	38	5	7	26	-50	22
20	Malaga	38	5	5	28	-37	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	15	3	0	+41	48
2	Ath Madrid	18	12	5	1	+22	41
3	Real Madrid	19	12	4	3	+34	40
4	Valencia	18	12	3	3	+19	39
5	Sevilla	19	11	5	3	+9	38
6	Villarreal	18	11	2	5	+13	35
7	Betis	19	10	4	5	+4	34
8	Sociedad	19	10	3	6	+18	33
9	Celta	19	8	8	3	+11	32
10	Getafe	19	9	4	6	+13	31
11	Leganes	19	9	4	6	+0	31
12	Espanol	19	8	6	5	+4	30
13	Eibar	19	8	4	7	+7	28
14	Alaves	19	9	1	9	-2	28
15	Girona	19	8	3	8	+4	27
16	Levante	19	7	6	6	-3	27
17	Ath Bilbao	18	6	8	4	+4	26
18	La Coruna	19	4	6	9	-11	18
19	Malaga	19	4	3	12	-13	15
20	Las Palmas	19	4	2	13	-23	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	19	12	6	1	+28	42
2	Ath Madrid	19	11	4	4	+14	37
3	Real Madrid	18	10	5	3	+16	35
4	Valencia	19	9	4	6	+7	31
5	Betis	19	8	2	9	-5	26
6	Villarreal	19	7	4	8	-6	25
7	Getafe	19	6	6	7	-4	24
8	Girona	19	6	6	7	-13	24
9	Eibar	18	6	4	8	-13	22
10	Sevilla	19	6	2	11	-18	20
11	Alaves	19	6	1	12	-8	19
12	Levante	19	4	7	8	-11	19
13	Ath Bilbao	19	4	5	10	-11	17
14	Celta	19	5	2	12	-12	17
15	Sociedad	18	4	4	10	-10	16
16	Espanol	18	3	7	8	-11	16
17	Leganes	19	3	3	13	-17	12
18	La Coruna	18	2	5	11	-26	11
19	Las Palmas	19	1	5	13	-27	8
20	Malaga	19	1	2	16	-24	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.