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Serie A

Referee: Gianpaolo Calvarese

Fiorentina

S T S S

2–0

Full-time

Bologna

T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

75%

25%

Points per game

2,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 25%

25%

Average goals

2,0

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

75%

25%

Points per game

2,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 25%

25%

Average goals

2,0

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

71% Possession 29%

18 Shots 3

4 Shots on target 1

9 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 0

1 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 3. · Bologna 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	4	4	0	0	+4	12
2	Torino	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Fiorentina	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Milan	5	3	0	2	+0	9
5	Roma	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Sassuolo	4	2	2	0	+2	8
7	Chievo	4	2	1	1	+5	7
8	Sampdoria	4	2	1	1	+3	7
9	Palermo	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Lazio	4	2	0	2	-6	6
11	Napoli	4	1	2	1	+4	5
12	Atalanta	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Juventus	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Empoli	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Verona	4	0	3	1	-2	3
16	Genoa	4	1	0	3	-2	3
17	Bologna	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Udinese	5	1	0	4	-4	3
19	Carpi	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Frosinone	4	0	0	4	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sampdoria	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Torino	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Lazio	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Fiorentina	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Milan	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Inter	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Napoli	2	1	1	0	+5	4
8	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Sassuolo	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Roma	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Palermo	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Chievo	2	1	0	1	+3	3
13	Genoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Bologna	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Verona	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Juventus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Empoli	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Carpi	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Udinese	3	0	0	3	-3	0
20	Frosinone	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Chievo	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Roma	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Sassuolo	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Juventus	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Empoli	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Palermo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Udinese	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Milan	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Napoli	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Atalanta	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Sampdoria	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Verona	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Carpi	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Genoa	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Bologna	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Frosinone	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Lazio	2	0	0	2	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.