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Serie A

Referee: Antonio Damato

Lazio

S S T S T

1–3

Full-time

Milan

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

This season — Serie A · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 55%

60%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

70%

50%

Both score Ø 45%

40%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

60% Possession 40%

10 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 6. · Milan 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	11	8	0	3	+13	24
2	Inter	11	7	3	1	+4	24
3	Roma	11	7	2	2	+12	23
4	Napoli	11	6	4	1	+13	22
5	Sassuolo	11	5	4	2	+3	19
6	Lazio	10	6	0	4	+0	18
7	Atalanta	11	5	2	4	-1	17
8	Milan	10	5	1	4	-3	16
9	Sampdoria	10	4	3	3	+4	15
10	Juventus	11	4	3	4	+3	15
11	Torino	11	4	3	4	+0	15
12	Chievo	10	3	3	4	+3	12
13	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-4	12
14	Genoa	11	3	3	5	-4	12
15	Empoli	10	3	2	5	-4	11
16	Palermo	10	3	2	5	-4	11
17	Frosinone	11	3	1	7	-7	10
18	Bologna	11	3	0	8	-6	9
19	Verona	11	0	6	5	-9	6
20	Carpi	11	1	3	7	-13	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	6	5	0	1	+10	15
2	Lazio	5	5	0	0	+10	15
3	Sampdoria	6	4	2	0	+9	14
4	Roma	5	4	1	0	+9	13
5	Napoli	5	4	1	0	+9	13
6	Atalanta	5	4	1	0	+7	13
7	Inter	6	4	1	1	+1	13
8	Milan	5	4	0	1	+0	12
9	Torino	5	3	2	0	+5	11
10	Juventus	6	3	2	1	+4	11
11	Sassuolo	5	3	2	0	+3	11
12	Genoa	5	3	1	1	+2	10
13	Frosinone	5	3	0	2	+2	9
14	Chievo	5	2	1	2	+3	7
15	Empoli	5	2	1	2	+0	7
16	Bologna	6	2	0	4	+0	6
17	Palermo	5	1	2	2	-2	5
18	Udinese	6	1	2	3	-2	5
19	Carpi	6	1	2	3	-2	5
20	Verona	5	0	3	2	-3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	5	3	2	0	+3	11
2	Roma	6	3	1	2	+3	10
3	Napoli	6	2	3	1	+4	9
4	Fiorentina	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	+0	8
6	Udinese	5	2	1	2	-2	7
7	Palermo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
8	Chievo	5	1	2	2	+0	5
9	Juventus	5	1	1	3	-1	4
10	Milan	5	1	1	3	-3	4
11	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-4	4
12	Torino	6	1	1	4	-5	4
13	Atalanta	6	1	1	4	-8	4
14	Bologna	5	1	0	4	-6	3
15	Verona	6	0	3	3	-6	3
16	Lazio	5	1	0	4	-10	3
17	Genoa	6	0	2	4	-6	2
18	Sampdoria	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Frosinone	6	0	1	5	-9	1
20	Carpi	5	0	1	4	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.