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Serie A

Referee: Luca Banti

Atalanta

T S U S S

1–0

Full-time

Crotone

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 36%

58%

13%

Points per game

1,9

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

63%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

54%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,6

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

14 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 5. · Crotone 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	25	21	0	4	+36	63
2	Roma	24	17	2	5	+29	53
3	Napoli	24	15	6	3	+31	51
4	Inter	24	14	3	7	+15	45
5	Atalanta	24	14	3	7	+13	45
6	Lazio	24	13	5	6	+14	44
7	Milan	24	12	5	7	+6	41
8	Fiorentina	24	11	7	6	+8	40
9	Torino	24	9	8	7	+9	35
10	Sampdoria	24	9	6	9	-1	33
11	Chievo	24	9	5	10	-6	32
12	Udinese	24	8	5	11	-5	29
13	Sassuolo	24	8	3	13	-7	27
14	Bologna	24	7	6	11	-14	27
15	Cagliari	24	8	3	13	-18	27
16	Genoa	24	6	7	11	-8	25
17	Empoli	24	5	7	12	-19	22
18	Palermo	25	3	5	17	-28	14
19	Crotone	24	3	4	17	-22	13
20	Pescara	24	1	6	17	-33	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	13	0	0	+27	39
2	Roma	11	11	0	0	+25	33
3	Napoli	13	9	3	1	+16	30
4	Inter	12	9	2	1	+18	29
5	Lazio	13	8	2	3	+11	26
6	Torino	12	7	4	1	+13	25
7	Fiorentina	12	6	6	0	+8	24
8	Atalanta	11	8	0	3	+7	24
9	Sampdoria	12	7	3	2	+7	24
10	Milan	12	7	2	3	+5	23
11	Cagliari	12	7	2	3	+2	23
12	Genoa	12	4	5	3	+5	17
13	Udinese	12	5	2	5	+1	17
14	Bologna	12	5	2	5	-3	17
15	Sassuolo	12	5	1	6	-3	16
16	Chievo	12	4	4	4	-4	16
17	Empoli	12	4	3	5	-8	15
18	Crotone	12	3	2	7	-6	11
19	Palermo	12	1	1	10	-16	4
20	Pescara	12	0	4	8	-18	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	12	8	0	4	+9	24
2	Napoli	11	6	3	2	+15	21
3	Atalanta	13	6	3	4	+6	21
4	Roma	13	6	2	5	+4	20
5	Lazio	11	5	3	3	+3	18
6	Milan	12	5	3	4	+1	18
7	Fiorentina	12	5	1	6	+0	16
8	Chievo	12	5	1	6	-2	16
9	Inter	12	5	1	6	-3	16
10	Udinese	12	3	3	6	-6	12
11	Sassuolo	12	3	2	7	-4	11
12	Torino	12	2	4	6	-4	10
13	Bologna	12	2	4	6	-11	10
14	Palermo	13	2	4	7	-12	10
15	Sampdoria	12	2	3	7	-8	9
16	Genoa	12	2	2	8	-13	8
17	Empoli	12	1	4	7	-11	7
18	Pescara	12	1	2	9	-15	5
19	Cagliari	12	1	1	10	-20	4
20	Crotone	12	0	2	10	-16	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.