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Eredivisie

Referee: Siemen Mulder

Heracles

T T T S U

4–0

Full-time

Excelsior

T U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heracles Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

This season — Eredivisie · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 23%

27%

18%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

55%

59%

Both score Ø 68%

68%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

30 Shots 14

13 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 9

4 Corners 5

4 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Heracles 9. · Excelsior 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	22	18	3	1	+46	57
2	Ajax	22	16	4	2	+32	52
3	PSV Eindhoven	22	14	7	1	+26	49
4	Twente	23	9	7	7	+2	34
5	Vitesse	22	9	6	7	+5	33
6	Heerenveen	21	9	5	7	+11	32
7	AZ Alkmaar	20	8	8	4	+7	32
8	Utrecht	19	8	6	5	+3	30
9	Heracles	22	6	7	9	-7	25
10	Willem II	22	6	7	9	-8	25
11	Nijmegen	22	6	7	9	-14	25
12	Groningen	21	5	8	8	-3	23
13	Zwolle	22	6	5	11	-20	23
14	Roda	23	3	11	9	-14	20
15	Excelsior	22	4	7	11	-15	19
16	Go Ahead Eagles	23	5	4	14	-16	19
17	Sparta Rotterdam	22	4	6	12	-12	18
18	Den Haag	22	5	2	15	-23	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	12	10	2	0	+29	32
2	Ajax	11	8	2	1	+18	26
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	3	1	+10	24
4	Twente	12	6	3	3	+5	21
5	Heerenveen	10	5	3	2	+6	18
6	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	+2	17
7	Nijmegen	11	4	4	3	+1	16
8	Heracles	11	4	3	4	+1	15
9	AZ Alkmaar	10	3	5	2	+2	14
10	Utrecht	9	4	2	3	+2	14
11	Excelsior	11	3	4	4	-1	13
12	Go Ahead Eagles	11	4	1	6	-3	13
13	Willem II	12	3	4	5	-6	13
14	Sparta Rotterdam	10	3	3	4	+0	12
15	Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12
16	Roda	12	2	5	5	-4	11
17	Groningen	10	2	5	3	-6	11
18	Den Haag	10	3	1	6	-6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	11	8	2	1	+14	26
2	Feyenoord	10	8	1	1	+17	25
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	4	0	+16	25
4	AZ Alkmaar	10	5	3	2	+5	18
5	Vitesse	11	4	4	3	+3	16
6	Utrecht	10	4	4	2	+1	16
7	Heerenveen	11	4	2	5	+5	14
8	Twente	11	3	4	4	-3	13
9	Groningen	11	3	3	5	+3	12
10	Willem II	10	3	3	4	-2	12
11	Zwolle	10	3	2	5	-9	11
12	Heracles	11	2	4	5	-8	10
13	Roda	11	1	6	4	-10	9
14	Nijmegen	11	2	3	6	-15	9
15	Den Haag	12	2	1	9	-17	7
16	Sparta Rotterdam	12	1	3	8	-12	6
17	Go Ahead Eagles	12	1	3	8	-13	6
18	Excelsior	11	1	3	7	-14	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.