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Serie A

Referee: Carmine Russo

Milan

U S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Genoa

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,2

This season — Serie A · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 40%

54%

25%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

54%

43%

Both score Ø 49%

54%

43%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

62% Possession 38%

20 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 5

4 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 7. · Genoa 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	28	23	1	4	+39	70
2	Roma	28	20	2	6	+36	62
3	Napoli	28	18	6	4	+35	60
4	Lazio	28	17	5	6	+20	56
5	Inter	29	17	4	8	+24	55
6	Atalanta	28	16	4	8	+10	52
7	Milan	28	15	5	8	+9	50
8	Fiorentina	28	12	9	7	+8	45
9	Sampdoria	28	11	8	9	+2	41
10	Torino	29	10	10	9	+6	40
11	Chievo	28	11	5	12	-4	38
12	Udinese	28	9	6	13	-5	33
13	Sassuolo	28	9	4	15	-8	31
14	Bologna	28	8	7	13	-16	31
15	Cagliari	28	9	4	15	-22	31
16	Genoa	28	7	8	13	-12	29
17	Empoli	28	5	7	16	-28	22
18	Palermo	28	3	6	19	-33	15
19	Crotone	28	3	5	20	-27	14
20	Pescara	28	2	6	20	-34	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	15	15	0	0	+30	45
2	Roma	13	12	0	1	+27	36
3	Napoli	15	10	3	2	+17	33
4	Inter	14	10	2	2	+22	32
5	Lazio	15	10	2	3	+14	32
6	Torino	14	8	5	1	+15	29
7	Milan	14	9	2	3	+8	29
8	Fiorentina	14	7	7	0	+9	28
9	Sampdoria	14	8	4	2	+9	28
10	Atalanta	13	9	1	3	+8	28
11	Cagliari	13	7	2	4	-2	23
12	Chievo	15	6	4	5	+0	22
13	Genoa	14	4	6	4	+4	18
14	Udinese	14	5	3	6	+0	18
15	Bologna	14	5	2	7	-6	17
16	Sassuolo	14	5	1	8	-5	16
17	Empoli	14	4	3	7	-11	15
18	Crotone	14	3	3	8	-7	12
19	Pescara	14	1	4	9	-15	7
20	Palermo	14	1	2	11	-19	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	13	8	3	2	+18	27
2	Roma	15	8	2	5	+9	26
3	Juventus	13	8	1	4	+9	25
4	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+6	24
5	Atalanta	15	7	3	5	+2	24
6	Inter	15	7	2	6	+2	23
7	Milan	14	6	3	5	+1	21
8	Fiorentina	14	5	2	7	-1	17
9	Chievo	13	5	1	7	-4	16
10	Sassuolo	14	4	3	7	-3	15
11	Udinese	14	4	3	7	-5	15
12	Bologna	14	3	5	6	-10	14
13	Sampdoria	14	3	4	7	-7	13
14	Torino	15	2	5	8	-9	11
15	Genoa	14	3	2	9	-16	11
16	Palermo	14	2	4	8	-14	10
17	Cagliari	15	2	2	11	-20	8
18	Empoli	14	1	4	9	-17	7
19	Pescara	14	1	2	11	-19	5
20	Crotone	14	0	2	12	-20	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.