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Serie A

Referee: Gianpaolo Calvarese

Lazio

T U S T U

4–0

Full-time

Crotone

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,7

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,0

This season — Serie A · 16/17 matches

Win Ø 44%

63%

24%

Points per game

2,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

88%

53%

Both score Ø 58%

81%

35%

Average goals

3,8

2,6

Scored

2,4

0,8

Conceded

1,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

20 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 5. · Crotone 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	17	13	3	1	+27	42
2	Juventus	17	13	2	2	+30	41
3	Inter	17	12	4	1	+21	40
4	Roma	16	12	2	2	+18	38
5	Lazio	16	10	3	3	+17	33
6	Sampdoria	16	8	3	5	+7	27
7	Fiorentina	18	7	5	6	+8	26
8	Atalanta	17	6	6	5	+3	24
9	Milan	17	7	3	7	-1	24
10	Bologna	18	7	3	8	-3	24
11	Torino	17	5	8	4	-2	23
12	Udinese	16	7	0	9	+1	21
13	Chievo	18	5	6	7	-11	21
14	Cagliari	18	5	2	11	-13	17
15	Sassuolo	17	5	2	10	-17	17
16	Crotone	17	4	3	10	-19	15
17	Genoa	17	3	5	9	-8	14
18	Spal	17	3	5	9	-12	14
19	Verona	17	3	4	10	-15	13
20	Benevento	17	0	1	16	-31	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	9	7	1	1	+17	22
2	Inter	9	7	1	1	+13	22
3	Roma	9	7	0	2	+8	21
4	Sampdoria	8	6	0	2	+12	18
5	Atalanta	9	5	3	1	+9	18
6	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+13	17
7	Fiorentina	8	4	2	2	+5	14
8	Milan	8	4	2	2	+1	14
9	Udinese	9	4	0	5	+0	12
10	Chievo	9	3	3	3	-2	12
11	Lazio	7	3	2	2	+6	11
12	Crotone	9	3	2	4	-5	11
13	Torino	8	2	4	2	+1	10
14	Cagliari	9	3	1	5	-4	10
15	Spal	8	2	3	3	-2	9
16	Bologna	9	2	3	4	-4	9
17	Verona	9	2	1	6	-9	7
18	Sassuolo	8	1	2	5	-7	5
19	Genoa	8	0	2	6	-8	2
20	Benevento	9	0	1	8	-16	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	9	8	1	0	+14	25
2	Lazio	9	7	1	1	+11	22
3	Juventus	8	6	1	1	+13	19
4	Inter	8	5	3	0	+8	18
5	Roma	7	5	2	0	+10	17
6	Bologna	9	5	0	4	+1	15
7	Torino	9	3	4	2	-3	13
8	Fiorentina	10	3	3	4	+3	12
9	Genoa	9	3	3	3	+0	12
10	Sassuolo	9	4	0	5	-10	12
11	Milan	9	3	1	5	-2	10
12	Udinese	7	3	0	4	+1	9
13	Sampdoria	8	2	3	3	-5	9
14	Chievo	9	2	3	4	-9	9
15	Cagliari	9	2	1	6	-9	7
16	Verona	8	1	3	4	-6	6
17	Atalanta	8	1	3	4	-6	6
18	Spal	9	1	2	6	-10	5
19	Crotone	8	1	1	6	-14	4
20	Benevento	8	0	0	8	-15	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.