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Serie A

Referee: Marco Guida

Roma

S U S T U

1–2

Full-time

Atalanta

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,7

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 18/19 matches

Win Ø 52%

67%

37%

Points per game

2,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

39%

53%

Both score Ø 54%

39%

68%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

67% Possession 33%

18 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

12 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Roma 5. · Atalanta 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	20	16	3	1	+31	51
2	Juventus	19	15	2	2	+33	47
3	Inter	20	12	6	2	+20	42
4	Lazio	19	12	4	3	+24	40
5	Roma	18	12	3	3	+17	39
6	Sampdoria	19	9	3	7	+7	30
7	Fiorentina	20	7	7	6	+8	28
8	Udinese	19	9	1	9	+6	28
9	Torino	20	6	10	4	+1	28
10	Milan	20	8	4	8	-2	28
11	Atalanta	19	7	6	6	+4	27
12	Bologna	20	7	3	10	-7	24
13	Chievo	20	5	7	8	-12	22
14	Genoa	20	5	6	9	-6	21
15	Sassuolo	20	6	3	11	-17	21
16	Cagliari	19	6	2	11	-12	20
17	Spal	20	3	6	11	-17	15
18	Crotone	20	4	3	13	-25	15
19	Verona	20	3	4	13	-23	13
20	Benevento	20	2	1	17	-30	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	10	8	1	1	+18	25
2	Napoli	10	7	2	1	+16	23
3	Inter	10	7	2	1	+13	23
4	Roma	10	7	1	2	+8	22
5	Sampdoria	9	7	0	2	+14	21
6	Atalanta	10	5	3	2	+8	18
7	Milan	10	5	2	3	+0	17
8	Fiorentina	10	4	4	2	+5	16
9	Udinese	10	5	0	5	+4	15
10	Lazio	8	4	2	2	+10	14
11	Torino	10	3	5	2	+4	14
12	Chievo	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	Crotone	10	3	2	5	-6	11
14	Cagliari	9	3	1	5	-4	10
15	Spal	10	2	4	4	-5	10
16	Bologna	10	2	3	5	-5	9
17	Genoa	10	2	2	6	-6	8
18	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	-6	8
19	Verona	10	2	1	7	-11	7
20	Benevento	11	2	1	8	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	10	9	1	0	+15	28
2	Lazio	11	8	2	1	+14	26
3	Juventus	9	7	1	1	+15	22
4	Inter	10	5	4	1	+7	19
5	Roma	8	5	2	1	+9	17
6	Bologna	10	5	0	5	-2	15
7	Torino	10	3	5	2	-3	14
8	Udinese	9	4	1	4	+2	13
9	Genoa	10	3	4	3	+0	13
10	Sassuolo	11	4	1	6	-11	13
11	Fiorentina	10	3	3	4	+3	12
12	Milan	10	3	2	5	-2	11
13	Cagliari	10	3	1	6	-8	10
14	Atalanta	9	2	3	4	-4	9
15	Sampdoria	10	2	3	5	-7	9
16	Chievo	10	2	3	5	-10	9
17	Verona	10	1	3	6	-12	6
18	Spal	10	1	2	7	-12	5
19	Crotone	10	1	1	8	-19	4
20	Benevento	9	0	0	9	-16	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.