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Serie A

Referee: Antonio Damato

Roma

S S U S U

1–0

Full-time

Cagliari

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 52%

73%

31%

Points per game

2,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

47%

63%

Both score Ø 45%

40%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

21 Shots 3

6 Shots on target 0

8 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 4. · Cagliari 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	17	13	3	1	+27	42
2	Inter	17	12	4	1	+21	40
3	Juventus	16	12	2	2	+27	38
4	Roma	15	11	2	2	+17	35
5	Lazio	15	10	2	3	+17	32
6	Sampdoria	15	8	3	4	+8	27
7	Milan	16	7	3	6	+2	24
8	Atalanta	16	6	5	5	+3	23
9	Torino	17	5	8	4	-2	23
10	Fiorentina	16	6	4	6	+7	22
11	Udinese	16	7	0	9	+1	21
12	Bologna	16	6	3	7	-1	21
13	Chievo	16	5	6	5	-9	21
14	Cagliari	16	5	2	9	-11	17
15	Sassuolo	16	4	2	10	-18	14
16	Genoa	16	3	4	9	-8	13
17	Crotone	16	3	3	10	-20	12
18	Spal	16	2	5	9	-13	11
19	Verona	16	2	4	10	-18	10
20	Benevento	16	0	1	15	-30	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	9	7	1	1	+17	22
2	Inter	9	7	1	1	+13	22
3	Sampdoria	7	6	0	1	+13	18
4	Roma	8	6	0	2	+7	18
5	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+13	17
6	Atalanta	8	5	2	1	+9	17
7	Milan	8	4	2	2	+1	14
8	Fiorentina	7	4	1	2	+5	13
9	Udinese	9	4	0	5	+0	12
10	Chievo	8	3	3	2	-1	12
11	Lazio	7	3	2	2	+6	11
12	Torino	8	2	4	2	+1	10
13	Cagliari	8	3	1	4	-3	10
14	Bologna	8	2	3	3	-1	9
15	Spal	8	2	3	3	-2	9
16	Crotone	8	2	2	4	-6	8
17	Sassuolo	8	1	2	5	-7	5
18	Verona	8	1	1	6	-12	4
19	Genoa	8	0	2	6	-8	2
20	Benevento	8	0	1	7	-15	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	9	8	1	0	+14	25
2	Lazio	8	7	0	1	+11	21
3	Inter	8	5	3	0	+8	18
4	Roma	7	5	2	0	+10	17
5	Juventus	7	5	1	1	+10	16
6	Torino	9	3	4	2	-3	13
7	Bologna	8	4	0	4	+0	12
8	Genoa	8	3	2	3	+0	11
9	Milan	8	3	1	4	+1	10
10	Fiorentina	9	2	3	4	+2	9
11	Udinese	7	3	0	4	+1	9
12	Sampdoria	8	2	3	3	-5	9
13	Chievo	8	2	3	3	-8	9
14	Sassuolo	8	3	0	5	-11	9
15	Cagliari	8	2	1	5	-8	7
16	Verona	8	1	3	4	-6	6
17	Atalanta	8	1	3	4	-6	6
18	Crotone	8	1	1	6	-14	4
19	Spal	8	0	2	6	-11	2
20	Benevento	8	0	0	8	-15	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.