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Serie A

Referee: Gianpaolo Calvarese

Crotone

T S T T T

1–0

Full-time

Bologna

S T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Crotone Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,0

1,8

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

2,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 27%

20%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

50%

57%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

57%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%

6 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Crotone 18. · Bologna 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	31	26	3	2	+56	81
2	Napoli	30	23	5	2	+44	74
3	Roma	31	18	6	7	+24	60
4	Inter	31	16	11	4	+28	59
5	Lazio	30	17	6	7	+34	57
6	Milan	30	15	6	9	+7	51
7	Fiorentina	31	14	8	9	+11	50
8	Atalanta	31	13	9	9	+13	48
9	Sampdoria	31	14	6	11	+4	48
10	Torino	31	11	12	8	+8	45
11	Bologna	30	10	5	15	-7	35
12	Genoa	31	9	8	14	-7	35
13	Udinese	30	10	3	17	-8	33
14	Chievo	30	7	8	15	-21	29
15	Cagliari	30	8	5	17	-22	29
16	Sassuolo	30	7	8	15	-30	29
17	Spal	31	5	12	14	-22	27
18	Crotone	30	6	6	18	-28	24
19	Verona	30	6	4	20	-37	22
20	Benevento	31	4	1	26	-47	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	15	13	1	1	+32	40
2	Napoli	15	11	2	2	+21	35
3	Inter	16	10	5	1	+19	35
4	Sampdoria	16	10	3	3	+14	33
5	Roma	16	9	1	6	+8	28
6	Lazio	15	8	3	4	+21	27
7	Milan	14	8	3	3	+3	27
8	Torino	16	7	5	4	+11	26
9	Atalanta	15	7	4	4	+9	25
10	Fiorentina	15	7	4	4	+4	25
11	Chievo	15	5	5	5	-3	20
12	Bologna	16	5	4	7	-1	19
13	Udinese	15	5	2	8	-1	17
14	Crotone	15	4	4	7	-6	16
15	Spal	15	3	7	5	-8	16
16	Genoa	15	4	3	8	-5	15
17	Cagliari	15	4	2	9	-13	14
18	Benevento	16	4	1	11	-15	13
19	Verona	15	4	1	10	-18	13
20	Sassuolo	15	2	6	7	-12	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	13	2	1	+24	41
2	Napoli	15	12	3	0	+23	39
3	Roma	15	9	5	1	+16	32
4	Lazio	15	9	3	3	+13	30
5	Fiorentina	16	7	4	5	+7	25
6	Inter	15	6	6	3	+9	24
7	Milan	16	7	3	6	+4	24
8	Atalanta	16	6	5	5	+4	23
9	Genoa	16	5	5	6	-2	20
10	Torino	15	4	7	4	-3	19
11	Sassuolo	15	5	2	8	-18	17
12	Bologna	14	5	1	8	-6	16
13	Udinese	15	5	1	9	-7	16
14	Cagliari	15	4	3	8	-9	15
15	Sampdoria	15	4	3	8	-10	15
16	Spal	16	2	5	9	-14	11
17	Chievo	15	2	3	10	-18	9
18	Verona	15	2	3	10	-19	9
19	Crotone	15	2	2	11	-22	8
20	Benevento	15	0	0	15	-32	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.