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Primeira Liga

Referee: Antonio Nobre

Chaves

S T T T T

1–1

Full-time

Belenenses

S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,3

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 33%

36%

29%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

46%

36%

Both score Ø 41%

46%

36%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chaves 8. · Belenenses 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	29	23	5	1	+58	74
2	Porto	28	22	4	2	+54	70
3	Sp Braga	29	21	2	6	+39	65
4	Sp Lisbon	28	20	5	3	+35	65
5	Rio Ave	29	13	4	12	-3	43
6	Maritimo	29	12	7	10	-8	43
7	Boavista	28	11	4	13	-9	37
8	Chaves	28	10	6	12	-12	36
9	Guimaraes	29	11	3	15	-13	36
10	Portimonense	29	9	8	12	-6	35
11	Belenenses	28	8	8	12	-11	32
12	Tondela	29	8	7	14	-9	31
13	Vitoria Setubal	29	6	10	13	-17	28
14	Pacos Ferreira	28	7	7	14	-17	28
15	Aves	28	6	7	15	-14	25
16	Moreirense	28	6	7	15	-18	25
17	Feirense	29	7	3	19	-17	24
18	Estoril	29	6	5	18	-32	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	13	1	0	+39	40
2	Porto	14	13	1	0	+35	40
3	Sp Braga	15	13	0	2	+25	39
4	Sp Lisbon	14	12	2	0	+25	38
5	Maritimo	14	9	3	2	+9	30
6	Rio Ave	14	9	2	3	+12	29
7	Boavista	14	9	1	4	+5	28
8	Guimaraes	14	8	2	4	-2	26
9	Belenenses	14	6	5	3	+4	23
10	Portimonense	14	7	2	5	+3	23
11	Pacos Ferreira	14	6	4	4	+1	22
12	Vitoria Setubal	15	5	6	4	+1	21
13	Chaves	14	4	5	5	-3	17
14	Feirense	15	5	2	8	-5	17
15	Moreirense	14	3	6	5	-4	15
16	Tondela	15	4	3	8	-5	15
17	Estoril	15	4	3	8	-12	15
18	Aves	14	3	3	8	-8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	10	4	1	+19	34
2	Porto	14	9	3	2	+19	30
3	Sp Lisbon	14	8	3	3	+10	27
4	Sp Braga	14	8	2	4	+14	26
5	Chaves	14	6	1	7	-9	19
6	Tondela	14	4	4	6	-4	16
7	Rio Ave	15	4	2	9	-15	14
8	Aves	14	3	4	7	-6	13
9	Maritimo	15	3	4	8	-17	13
10	Portimonense	15	2	6	7	-9	12
11	Guimaraes	15	3	1	11	-11	10
12	Moreirense	14	3	1	10	-14	10
13	Boavista	14	2	3	9	-14	9
14	Belenenses	14	2	3	9	-15	9
15	Estoril	14	2	2	10	-20	8
16	Feirense	14	2	1	11	-12	7
17	Vitoria Setubal	14	1	4	9	-18	7
18	Pacos Ferreira	14	1	3	10	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.