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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Valeri

Fiorentina

T U S S S

2–0

Full-time

Crotone

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,5

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 30%

39%

21%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

54%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

21 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Fiorentina 9. · Crotone 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	29	24	3	2	+52	75
2	Napoli	29	23	4	2	+44	73
3	Roma	30	18	6	6	+26	60
4	Inter	28	15	10	3	+26	55
5	Lazio	29	16	6	7	+30	54
6	Milan	28	15	5	8	+9	50
7	Atalanta	28	12	8	8	+12	44
8	Sampdoria	28	13	5	10	+4	44
9	Fiorentina	28	11	8	9	+5	41
10	Torino	28	8	12	8	+0	36
11	Bologna	30	10	5	15	-7	35
12	Udinese	28	10	3	15	-4	33
13	Genoa	28	8	6	14	-8	30
14	Cagliari	28	8	5	15	-17	29
15	Sassuolo	28	7	6	15	-30	27
16	Spal	29	5	10	14	-22	25
17	Chievo	28	6	7	15	-22	25
18	Crotone	28	6	6	16	-23	24
19	Verona	28	6	4	18	-31	22
20	Benevento	28	3	1	24	-44	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	12	1	1	+30	37
2	Napoli	15	11	2	2	+21	35
3	Inter	15	9	5	1	+16	32
4	Sampdoria	15	10	2	3	+14	32
5	Roma	15	9	1	5	+10	28
6	Milan	13	8	2	3	+3	26
7	Lazio	14	7	3	4	+17	24
8	Atalanta	13	6	4	3	+8	22
9	Fiorentina	14	6	4	4	+2	22
10	Torino	14	5	5	4	+7	20
11	Bologna	16	5	4	7	-1	19
12	Udinese	14	5	2	7	+1	17
13	Chievo	13	4	4	5	-4	16
14	Crotone	15	4	4	7	-6	16
15	Spal	14	3	6	5	-8	15
16	Cagliari	14	4	2	8	-9	14
17	Verona	15	4	1	10	-18	13
18	Genoa	13	3	2	8	-6	11
19	Sassuolo	14	2	5	7	-12	11
20	Benevento	14	3	1	10	-16	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	14	12	2	0	+23	38
2	Juventus	15	12	2	1	+22	38
3	Roma	15	9	5	1	+16	32
4	Lazio	15	9	3	3	+13	30
5	Milan	15	7	3	5	+6	24
6	Inter	13	6	5	2	+10	23
7	Atalanta	15	6	4	5	+4	22
8	Fiorentina	14	5	4	5	+3	19
9	Genoa	15	5	4	6	-2	19
10	Udinese	14	5	1	8	-5	16
11	Bologna	14	5	1	8	-6	16
12	Torino	14	3	7	4	-7	16
13	Sassuolo	14	5	1	8	-18	16
14	Cagliari	14	4	3	7	-8	15
15	Sampdoria	13	3	3	7	-10	12
16	Spal	15	2	4	9	-14	10
17	Verona	13	2	3	8	-13	9
18	Chievo	15	2	3	10	-18	9
19	Crotone	13	2	2	9	-17	8
20	Benevento	14	0	0	14	-28	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.