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Ligue 1

Referee: Lionel Jaffredo

Bastia

S U U T U

2–1

Full-time

Marseille

U U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

1,3

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 31%

35%

26%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 31%

29%

32%

Both score Ø 52%

35%

68%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

31% Possession 69%

6 Shots 7

1 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 2

5 Offside 5

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Bastia 12. · Marseille 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	32	25	5	2	+63	80
2	Monaco	32	14	13	5	+11	55
3	Rennes	32	13	12	7	+11	51
4	Nice	32	14	8	10	+10	50
5	Lyon	31	14	7	10	+16	49
6	St Etienne	32	14	6	12	+4	48
7	Lille	32	11	13	8	+5	46
8	Caen	32	14	4	14	-8	46
9	Angers	32	12	9	11	+3	45
10	Nantes	32	11	11	10	-4	44
11	Bordeaux	32	10	12	10	-9	42
12	Bastia	31	11	7	13	-3	40
13	Marseille	31	8	15	8	+6	39
14	Lorient	31	9	12	10	-5	39
15	Guingamp	32	10	9	13	-8	39
16	Montpellier	32	10	7	15	-2	37
17	Reims	32	8	9	15	-12	33
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	32	7	12	13	-14	33
19	Toulouse	32	6	11	15	-15	29
20	Troyes	32	2	8	22	-49	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	12	3	1	+33	39
2	Lyon	16	10	3	3	+20	33
3	Nice	16	9	2	5	+9	29
4	Bastia	16	9	2	5	+8	29
5	Lille	16	8	4	4	+7	28
6	St Etienne	15	8	3	4	+8	27
7	Monaco	16	7	6	3	+7	27
8	Bordeaux	16	7	6	3	+6	27
9	Nantes	16	7	5	4	+2	26
10	Caen	16	8	2	6	-4	26
11	Angers	16	6	7	3	+7	25
12	Lorient	15	6	6	3	+7	24
13	Guingamp	16	6	6	4	+6	24
14	Rennes	16	6	6	4	+4	24
15	Montpellier	16	7	0	9	+0	21
16	Reims	16	5	5	6	+2	20
17	Toulouse	16	4	7	5	+4	19
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	16	4	7	5	-4	19
19	Marseille	16	2	9	5	+2	15
20	Troyes	16	0	6	10	-22	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	13	2	1	+30	41
2	Monaco	16	7	7	2	+4	28
3	Rennes	16	7	6	3	+7	27
4	Marseille	15	6	6	3	+4	24
5	Nice	16	5	6	5	+1	21
6	St Etienne	17	6	3	8	-4	21
7	Angers	16	6	2	8	-4	20
8	Caen	16	6	2	8	-4	20
9	Lille	16	3	9	4	-2	18
10	Nantes	16	4	6	6	-6	18
11	Montpellier	16	3	7	6	-2	16
12	Lyon	15	4	4	7	-4	16
13	Lorient	16	3	6	7	-12	15
14	Guingamp	16	4	3	9	-14	15
15	Bordeaux	16	3	6	7	-15	15
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	16	3	5	8	-10	14
17	Reims	16	3	4	9	-14	13
18	Bastia	15	2	5	8	-11	11
19	Toulouse	16	2	4	10	-19	10
20	Troyes	16	2	2	12	-27	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.