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Ligue 1

Referee: Ruddy Buquet

Toulouse

T U S T S

4–0

Full-time

Bastia

U U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 29%

19%

38%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

47%

31%

Both score Ø 46%

53%

38%

Average goals

2,6

2,0

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%

11 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 1

0 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 2

6 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Toulouse 19. · Bastia 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	33	26	5	2	+65	83
2	Lyon	33	16	7	10	+20	55
3	Monaco	32	14	13	5	+11	55
4	Rennes	32	13	12	7	+11	51
5	Nice	32	14	8	10	+10	50
6	St Etienne	32	14	6	12	+4	48
7	Lille	32	11	13	8	+5	46
8	Caen	32	14	4	14	-8	46
9	Angers	32	12	9	11	+3	45
10	Nantes	32	11	11	10	-4	44
11	Bastia	32	12	7	13	-2	43
12	Bordeaux	32	10	12	10	-9	42
13	Marseille	32	8	15	9	+5	39
14	Lorient	32	9	12	11	-7	39
15	Guingamp	33	10	9	14	-10	39
16	Montpellier	33	10	7	16	-4	37
17	Reims	32	8	9	15	-12	33
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	32	7	12	13	-14	33
19	Toulouse	32	6	11	15	-15	29
20	Troyes	32	2	8	22	-49	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	12	3	1	+33	39
2	Lyon	16	10	3	3	+20	33
3	Bastia	17	10	2	5	+9	32
4	Nice	16	9	2	5	+9	29
5	Lille	16	8	4	4	+7	28
6	St Etienne	15	8	3	4	+8	27
7	Monaco	16	7	6	3	+7	27
8	Bordeaux	16	7	6	3	+6	27
9	Nantes	16	7	5	4	+2	26
10	Caen	16	8	2	6	-4	26
11	Angers	16	6	7	3	+7	25
12	Lorient	16	6	6	4	+5	24
13	Guingamp	17	6	6	5	+4	24
14	Rennes	16	6	6	4	+4	24
15	Montpellier	17	7	0	10	-2	21
16	Reims	16	5	5	6	+2	20
17	Toulouse	16	4	7	5	+4	19
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	16	4	7	5	-4	19
19	Marseille	16	2	9	5	+2	15
20	Troyes	16	0	6	10	-22	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	14	2	1	+32	44
2	Monaco	16	7	7	2	+4	28
3	Rennes	16	7	6	3	+7	27
4	Marseille	16	6	6	4	+3	24
5	Lyon	17	6	4	7	+0	22
6	Nice	16	5	6	5	+1	21
7	St Etienne	17	6	3	8	-4	21
8	Angers	16	6	2	8	-4	20
9	Caen	16	6	2	8	-4	20
10	Lille	16	3	9	4	-2	18
11	Nantes	16	4	6	6	-6	18
12	Montpellier	16	3	7	6	-2	16
13	Lorient	16	3	6	7	-12	15
14	Guingamp	16	4	3	9	-14	15
15	Bordeaux	16	3	6	7	-15	15
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	16	3	5	8	-10	14
17	Reims	16	3	4	9	-14	13
18	Bastia	15	2	5	8	-11	11
19	Toulouse	16	2	4	10	-19	10
20	Troyes	16	2	2	12	-27	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.